THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020 IS COMING UP

STAY UP TO DATE WITH THIS YEAR’S BIGGEST ECONOMIC INDICATOR

The US elections are a major economic indicator with great effect on the USD and US stocks. Traders are gearing up to take advantage of this once-in-4 year event. Depending on who’s taking the lead and eventually who wins, the markets will react in different ways, will you be ready to trade the elections?

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Financial Market Watch

The road to the US elections is filled with market movements and trading opportunities. Everything you need to know is here.
By Roberto d'Ambrosio

S&P 500 futures down over a percentage point, well below 3300 level, and Crude Oil heading south close to 2%. The week starts with the attention shifting to the second wave of the COVID19 pandemic being now undeniable, and the consequent fears of the impact on a world economy which is just starting to heal from the first wave. Are the US elections out of the scope? No, as President Trump is ramping up his confrontation with China, also on electoral speculation. And that is not good news for the markets.

By Roberto d'Ambrosio

The FED confirmed: no interest rate hike at least until 2023, confirming our view that, whoever wins the elections, the monetary policy is and will remain extremely accommodative. The market did not react that much during yesterday’s session, but started refocusing on the near future and the uncertainty on the winner of the US elections. Stock markets are retracing at the moment and the USD is likely to gain some strength as the risk appetite fades.

By Roberto d'Ambrosio

In Florida, one of the key states in the US electoral system, Trump has narrowed the gap with Biden more than 7 points in July to 2.3-2.5%. What if Trump wins? In the very short term the stock market might cheer, as will the USD, on expectation that the extremely accommodative fiscal policies will continue. Then, fears of a revamp of trade wars and rough protests home might pull the market down. We can expect a roller-coaster all over the place.

By Roberto d'Ambrosio

Uncertainty on who will win the US presidential election continues. What if Biden wins? Part of his platform is to revert, or at least revise the fiscal stimulus that was implemented by Trump’s administration early on its tenure and more costs related to the environment and healthcare, which need to be funded by more taxation. In the short term, in the days right after the announcement, this might weigh on the stock market, with smaller listed companies being under pressure.

By Roberto d'Ambrosio

As we approach the US presidential elections, one core indicator to look at is the CPI (Consumer Price Index). Domestic spending has always been a very important element of the US economic performance and overall sentiment. The index has been recovering since its lowest in May 2020, but it is still considerably below the usual readings and with the Pandemic still raging in the US, the CPI could still be negatively affected and so will the USD.

By Roberto d'Ambrosio

The upcoming US presidential election is showing an unusual pattern: the actual President seems to be the underdog. Such a situation will most likely fuel the expected volatility even more. Considering that closer to the date, the debate will become harsher and more pressure could come from the Global Pandemic evolution and the BLM protests, all asset classes are posed for big moves. Fasten your seat-belts tight (AKA, adequately manage your risk).

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WHAT’S IN STORE FOR THE MARKETS?

The road to the US elections is filled with market movements and trading opportunities. Everything you need to know is here.
EURUSD
USDJPY
NSDQ
S&P500
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