Gold volatile and trend uncertain


Gold used to be a safe-haven asset. Not during this crisis. The initial spike higher was quickly erased as investors are selling everything due to a shortage of US dollar liquidity, and cash is king, as during any crisis.

As margin calls are hitting investors in the stock market, they need more collateral to cover those calls. Thus, all assets came under selling pressure.


The significant support is now at November lows at around 1,450 USD, and if this level is taken out, large stop-losses could be hit, and the medium-term trend might change to bearish. The next target should then be at previous highs near 1,345 USD.


If we take a look at the crisis of 2008/2009, gold fell initially, only to regain ground later as the Fed started to print money. A similar scenario could happen nowadays, as well. The panic selling will most likely bring gold further lower, before a rebound in H2 2020 as the Fed will print money and slashed the rates to zero. The resistance is now seen at around 1,550 USD, and while gold trades below, rallies could be sold, and the outlook seems bearish.


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