SP500 in a bearish trend

The benchmark US index is in a bearish trend (defined as a 20% drop from the recent cycle highs) and is trying to defend the critical bullish trend line from 2009 lows.

This trend line is currently at around 2,450 USD, and if the price stays above this trend line, we could see some consolidation, or potentially some attempts to buy the significant dip.

However, it seems that as long as the index trades below 2,740 USD, rallies could be sold as the coronavirus situation is getting worse in the EU and the US and not better. The latest central bank interventions failed to calm the markets and only increased the panic selling.

Should the index jump above 2,740 USD, the worst could be over, and the medium-term trend might then switch to bullish. On the downside, if the index drops below the trend line, the next support is seen at December 2018 lows at around 2,340 USD. That is the next major level to watch.  If the price drops and closes below this zone, the long-term bearish trend may be confirmed, with the next target at around 2,200 USD.

Volatility is at extreme levels, and this should continue over the next days/weeks.

 

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