SP500 rebounds strongly


Tuesday was one of the best days for equities in the history of the stock market, and US benchmarks rose +-10%, erasing three days of losses. On Wednesday, the index was 2% higher during the London session, trying to settle above the 2,500 USD threshold.

A sharp correction was to be expected, considering the steepness of the decline, monetary and fiscal policy interventions, and extreme fear in the markets. However, this could only be a bear market rally, meaning that we are still in a bear market, and the rally might be sold into, with new cycle lows possibly ahead of us.

The Fibonacci levels can help us with possible targets for the current rally. The 38.2% Fibo level stands at 2,645 USD, which is probably the first target for bulls. If the price jumps above this resistance, we could see further gains to the 2,800 - 2,900 USD zone, where October' lows are converged with the 50.0. - 61.8% retracement. As long as the index remains below these resistances, the bearish trend will be intact.

It's essential to add that the current rally might end anytime, and it doesn't necessarily need to reach the mentioned Fibo levels. As we are still in a bearish trend, rallies could be sold, but due to oversold conditions, a correction might continue for some time.

Fundamentally, the following depression might be very severe, but it might ease in the second half of the year.

Intraday supports are now found at 2,400 USD and afterward, near 2,360 USD. If the index drops below 2,200 USD and posts new lows, the bearish trend would be confirmed, targeting the 2,000 USD level next.

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