Every small rally is being sold off dramatically, and gold has been creating lower highs and lower lows - an excellent medium-term downtrend that started in August. Precious metals failed to capitalize on weak USD and low yields, with soaring equities also not helping.
However, correlations seem to work the other way around - on days when the USD is up, stocks are down, or yields are up - metals are always hammered. Therefore, there seems to be no incentive to move higher but a powerful incentive to go lower.
If the Fed is not dovish enough tonight, further selling could occur. The next target for bears lies at November lows near 1,770 USD, and if that level is broken to the downside, the long-term bull market would most likely be over. In that case, gold could correct to 1,660 USD.
Alternatively, if a miracle happens and gold starts rallying, it needs to climb above 1,880 USD to stabilize. Until then, the short and medium-term outlooks look very bad, and any rallies are expected to be sold.