USDJPY plunges to March lows

17/12/2020

The greenback continued to bleed on Thursday, and the USDJPY pair was down 0.5%, falling toward the 103 level, last seen during March's COVID crash.

As the US real yields are down nearly every day, implying inflation is higher than the US treasury yield, bondholders suffer losses from holding bonds. Moreover, the USDJPY pair tends to be tightly correlated with the US yields, and therefore the pair has been stuck in a bearish trend since March, as real yields continued to decline. 

The key support now stands at 101, which are March lows. It's still 200 pips lower than the current price, but considering the current anti-dollar mood, this support might be reached pretty quickly. 

The focus would then shift to the psychological of 100. Falling below would be another strong bearish signal. 

Alternatively, the resistance is now seen at November lows of 103.15, afterwards at 104, where Autumn lows are observed. The short-term trend seems bearish, with investors ready to sell any rallies unless the bond market sends a bullish signal (when yields start to rise).
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