Equities Correct Yesterday's Losses, Dollar Trades Unchanged
18 February 2022
Both EU and US indices rose strongly on Friday as traders bought Thursday's dip, which sent indexes 2-3% lower due to escalating situation between US and Russia.
Today, sentiment improved somewhat after State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement that Russia responded to a US offer for a meeting between Blinken and Lavrov in Europe with proposed dates for late next week, and the US has accepted "provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine."
In its official response to security proposals from Washington, Russia told the US that it has no plans to attack, and officials in Moscow have repeatedly dismissed US warnings of a possible move against Ukraine as "hysteria" and propaganda.
Later today, January's Canadian ADP employment change is due, along with domestic retail sales data, possibly influencing the USDCAD pair.
Additionally, Fed's Waller, Williams, and Brainard will speak today, possibly causing volatility as well. In his Yesterday's speech, Bullard reiterated his hawkish preferences, also undermining stocks, but US yields remained lower on the day due to geopolitical tensions.
Once (or If) the situation in Ukraine improves notably, traders should start focusing on soaring inflation and the Fed's expected rate hikes, likely sending US yields further higher (and stocks lower).
In the FX market, nothing new is going on, with the EURUSD pair trading in the middle of its recent range, last seen at 1.1370, while the USDJPY pair remains glued near 115. Sterling is trying to break out from the current consolidation range, possibly soon attacking the 200-day average at 1.37.