How Will the Euro React? Anticipating the ECB Press Conference
14 September 2023
Welcome traders, this Thursday has much in store. Yesterday, the anticipated inflation data from the U.S. was released with only a slight deviation from expectations. While the market had set its sights on 3.6%, the data revealed a 3.7% inflation rate. Despite this minor discrepancy, the numbers failed to significantly sway the indices and the dollar.
On the currency market, the limelight was on the New Zealand dollar's ascent, closely followed by the Canadian dollar. Conversely, the Swiss franc and euro trailed behind. As of today, the Australian dollar's rise can be attributed to the unexpected employment change in Australia, which surpassed expectations at 64.9k instead of the projected 25.4k.
Keeping an eye on the calendar, the main refinancing rate decision from the Eurozone stands out. Speculation suggests it will remain steady at 4.25%. Furthermore, the day promises a monetary policy statement, U.S. retail sales (anticipated at 0.1%), and the U.S. PPI. Rounding off the day, the ECB press conference is bound to hold significance, especially for the euro. Speaking of which, the EURUSD has been entangled in a rising flag formation for a few days now.
As we shift focus to the indices, there's a slow upward drift, though momentum remains lukewarm. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are demonstrating a sideways motion, with the latter firmly above its pivotal long-term uptrend line.
Lastly, taking a look at commodities, gold seems to be teetering above the $1900 support, with silver setting its sights on new mid-term lows. Oil, however, is on a roll, hitting new long-term highs just yesterday. The upward thrust in oil prices continues to be a focal point for traders and analysts alike.