Markets Await US Inflation Data for Directional Clues
10 May 2023
When I looked at this week’s macro calendar on Sunday, I knew that I should not expect any fireworks or volatility in the market. The first two days were really quiet, but that may change today as we finally have Tier-1 data on the schedule. Today, before the start of the American session, we will find out the US inflation number. Analysts anticipate a value of 5%, which would mean no change from the previous month's reading. Let's see if we get any surprises.
Indices are anticipating the CPI data in a short-term sideways trend, which can be considered a correction of Friday's strong upswing. The correction is flat and seems controlled, so we can say that buyers are still in charge of the situation.
The Forex market is also uneventful. Yesterday, EURUSD managed to break a key support, but in the late hours of the Asian session, buyers are performing a counter-attack, which may as well cancel this breakout. The only pair where something really interesting happened is the EURGBP. Yesterday, the price drove to new yearly lows after breaking two key long-term supports: the lower line of the symmetric triangle and the horizontal one on the 0.873. Today, buyers are trying to initiate a reversal, but I think that the long-term sentiment is already set, and it's negative.
Tuesday was a third consecutive bullish day for oil, which enjoyed a reversal after the Thursday bounce. However, I believe that today, the price will fall. The recent rise was stretched and had no backup in the fundamentals. In my opinion, it was just a normal take-profit action, and today traders will come back to the main bearish trend, which we can observe on the chart in the past year