We’re halfway through the week, and today’s session is already shaping up to be an interesting one, with several moves going against recent market trends. The day began with a surprise — both on the macro front and across key asset classes.
Let’s start with the calendar, which featured an interest rate decision from New Zealand overnight. Markets were anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut, but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised traders with a 50-basis-point cut, doubling expectations. The reaction was immediate — the New Zealand dollar plunged, becoming the weakest currency in today’s session. This aggressive move underscores the RBNZ’s concern about the slowing domestic economy and could signal the beginning of a deeper monetary easing cycle.
Interestingly, while NZD took a hit, the Australian dollar — which often moves in tandem — showed relative resilience. The correlation between the two Antipodean currencies seems to have temporarily broken, as the Aussie holds firm, supported by robust commodity prices. Speaking of commodities, gold is once again shining — quite literally — as it surges to new all-time highs, reaffirming its status as the ultimate safe haven in times of policy and economic uncertainty.
Elsewhere on the currency market, the Japanese yen remains under pressure, continuing its recent streak of weakness. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar are showing a more mixed tone. Both were strong during the Asian session, but as the European session begins, we are witnessing some weakness on the dollar, hinting at potential short-term profit-taking ahead of upcoming U.S. session.
In the commodity space, oil is attempting a rebound after recent declines. The move is modest so far, but if crude prices can hold above near-term support levels, a more sustained reversal could unfold later in the week. The Canadian dollar, highly correlated with oil prices, is gaining traction as a result. Metals overall remain strong, continuing their impressive streak of gains this quarter.
Looking toward equities, indices are stabilizing after Tuesday’s sell-off. We’re seeing cautious buying activity, but not yet a full reversal — more of a sideways-to-mildly-bullish correction following yesterday’s sharp decline. Futures remain hesitant, and traders are waiting for the American session to confirm whether sentiment can truly turn positive again.
Finally, in the crypto market, we’re observing a tentative bullish attempt. Bitcoin has managed to break out of a pennant pattern to the upside, while Ethereum is defending key horizontal support near $4,430, signaling a potential foundation for recovery if buyers can hold the line.
Overall, Wednesday opens with volatility, surprise policy shifts, and renewed strength in commodities. With gold at record highs, NZD reeling, and markets recalibrating after the RBNZ’s move, traders should brace for another active session once the U.S. market joins the game.