Rate Decision Day. What to Expect from the Fed's Big Announcement?

Rate Decision Day. What to Expect from the Fed's Big Announcement?
Welcome traders to this Wednesday review. Today stands as the pivotal point in this week's macro calendar, given the much-anticipated interest rate decision. Forecasts are leaning heavily towards the Fed leaving rates untouched at 5.5%. Nevertheless, keen eyes will be on the subsequent economic projections, official statements, and the follow-up press conference.
Earlier today, the UK's inflation number was posted. Coming in at 6.7%, it underperformed expectations of 7% and even slipped beneath the previous 6.8%. This dip has been mirrored by the pound, as it's currently trending downwards - a clear-cut response to the inflation data.

Diving into Tuesday's events, Canada's inflation data was a standout. Contrary to expectations, the monthly inflation rate surged to 0.4%. The Canadian dollar initially showed robustness during the first half of the day. Still, post-announcement, it experienced a bout of weakening. Nevertheless, when the dust settled, the Canadian dollar emerged slightly stronger by the day's close.

Turning our gaze to the charts, it's a mix of calm and turbulence. While the dollar has been relatively quiet, the indices tell a different story. There was a downward slide in indices yesterday, but a late attempt at reversal was evident. Dow Jones is currently teetering on a pivotal support line, where its long-term uptrend is being put to the test. Any dip below this line could spell disaster and could act as a sell signal for many. Similarly, the DAX is hovering precariously close to its crucial 15,500 points support level. A breach downwards here might also activate a sell-off.

Last but not least, let's steer the discussion towards commodities. The prevailing mood is bearish. While this trend is visible across the board, oil is bearing the brunt. Just yesterday, amid widespread optimism about its prospects, we pointed out the likelihood of a bearish correction. Right on cue, oil markets began their descent, marked by a telling 'shooting star' candle on the daily chart. Today's candlestick pattern suggests an even deeper bearish sentiment. Immediate supports, especially those from late August and early September, might soon be under the microscope. In tandem, precious metals are also trending lower, but oil's decline is sharper, considering its impressive rally in the previous sessions.
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