Tariffs Back on the Radar as Markets Open Mixed

Currency markets, however, are showing more pronounced reactions. The biggest moves are seen in antipodean currencies, with the Australian dollar leading the drop. This is likely a combination of renewed tariff concerns and market anticipation of Tuesday’s interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, where a 25 basis point cut is widely expected. The New Zealand dollar is also under heavy pressure this morning. Meanwhile, traditional safe havens and more resilient currencies are gaining ground—namely, the U.S. dollar, the Swiss franc, and the euro, which are showing strength early in the session.

Equity futures are flashing green, suggesting a positive opening across major indices as we begin the European session. Despite the trade headlines, risk sentiment in stock markets appears relatively resilient, perhaps reflecting confidence in monetary policy support or simply a wait-and-see approach from investors.

In contrast, commodities are not faring as well. Oil starts the week under pressure, pulling back after a relatively strong previous week. Metals are also in retreat mode, with gold, silver, and copper all opening lower. The decline in commodity prices reflects a degree of caution in broader sentiment and perhaps some early positioning ahead of key data releases later in the week.

The calendar today is very light, with no tier-one data scheduled. Traders will be mostly positioning ahead of tomorrow, when the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver its much-anticipated rate decision. Until then, expect the market to remain sensitive to any new geopolitical or macroeconomic developments.