GBPCHF's Sideways Saga Edges Towards a Bearish Chapter
10 November 2023
The British Pound to Swiss Franc pair has been on my radar for several weeks, presenting a fascinating case study in currency market dynamics. What we're witnessing here is a classic example of market forces playing tug-of-war, testing key resistance and support levels.
For nearly twelve months, GBPCHF moved within a defined range, bounded by a blue resistance line and a green horizontal support. This prolonged sideways trend was a period of relative stability, but as with all markets, change was inevitable.
Around mid-October, after sustained pressure, the green support line finally gave way. This break below a critical support level was a clear bearish signal, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.
The end of October and early November seemed to herald a change in fortunes with a bullish reversal. Buyers, for a moment, appeared to take the upper hand, pushing the price above the green line. However, this was short-lived as they couldn't maintain their position above this critical resistance level. The price not only fell back below the green line but also encountered resistance at a mid-term downtrend line, marked in red.
This sequence of events has led to what we call a 'false breakout', highlighted by a yellow rectangle on the chart. Currently, GBPCHF is trading lower, having failed to sustain its brief foray above the green resistance. The market is now signaling a sell, with potential targets aligning with October's lows.