USDJPY Awaits BoJ and Fed Combo
19 September 2022
The USDJPY pair has been consolidating today, rising slightly and trying to settle above the 143 mark. However, more volatility is expected throughout the week.
In other news, the 2-year US yield is attacking the 4% threshold, still supporting the USDJPY pair in its uptrend. However, the pace of the advance might slow down due to possible interventions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
BoJ to sound very careful
In order to protect the yen from further devaluation, BoJ officials are anticipated to end the ongoing ultra-loose monetary policy at this week's meeting. Therefore, the BoJ officials are anticipated to take a "neutral" stance, and no new stimulus plans will be disclosed. A neutral action would be expected given that Japanese officials are already concerned about the yen's decline and are planning to intervene in forex movements.
“While officials are monitoring rising inflationary pressures due to higher food prices and while a slide in the yen to a 24-year low against the dollar could potentially raise political pressure on the Bank to act, the BOJ's board will likely maintain an easing bias given that the output gap is in negative territory." economists at MNI said ahead of the BoJ meeting.
Who is doing most is, once again, the major issue of the week due to the several central bank meetings. However, according to economists at Commerzbank, it is obvious who will take the least action or have the least impact: the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Thus, the 150 level will be tested by USD/JPY.
Short-term outlook bullish
The USDJPY pair is trading within a consolidation triangle pattern, which is usually broken in the direction of the primary trend, in this case, to the upside.
Therefore, the resistance is near 144/145, and should the USD jump above that level; we might see a quick rally toward the mentioned 150 threshold.
Alternatively, a downside break from the triangle could send the USDJPY to the 140 zone or possibly to the 137 demand level.