Weekly Market Commentary | 02.10 – 08.10

02 October 2023

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!

Monday:

ISM Manufacturing PMI (US): This key manufacturing index is forecast to come in at 47.8.
Speech by Jerome Powell: Always an event to keep an eye on, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will address the public today.
Market Closures: A heads-up for traders interested in the East and North – the markets in China will remain shut throughout the week and Canada is taking a day off today.

Tuesday:

Interest Rate Decision (Australia): The anticipation is palpable, but don't expect any fireworks. The consensus points towards no change, keeping the rates at 4.1%.
Inflation Data (Switzerland): A steady hand seems to be at play here as well, with no change anticipated.
JOLTS Job Openings (US): The job market data is forecast to show 8.85 million openings.

Wednesday:

Interest Rate Decision (New Zealand): Our friends from the Antipodes seem consistent. Just like their Aussie neighbors, New Zealand is likely to keep their interest rate unchanged at 5.5%.
Speech by ECB President Lagarde: When the European Central Bank speaks, the world listens.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (US): Employment data is expected to show a rise by 155,000.
ISM Services PMI (US): The service sector index is projected to stand at 53.5.

Thursday:
A momentary lull in the action, but still, some events of note:

Construction PMI (UK): Expected to hover around the neutral 50 mark.
Unemployment Claims (US): Weekly data to keep an eye on, as per usual.

Friday:
An important day, especially for those eyeing the US job market:

Non-Farm Payrolls (US): Projections indicate a decrease to 168,000.
Unemployment Rate (US): Anticipated to dip slightly from 3.8% to 3.7%.
Job Data (Canada): Always essential for those trading in the CAD.

Setups for This Week:

WTI Oil
Primary View:

The price is trending upwards inside a channel up formation in blue.
We recently encountered a significant horizontal resistance at $94 per barrel, coupled with the upper line of the channel formation.
This resistance confluence proved to be formidable, causing the price to bounce back, providing a mid-term sell signal.

Alternative View:

Should the price ascend past the orange resistance, it would serve as a buy trigger.

Silver
Primary View:

Silver underwent a rough patch last week, with the price dynamics facilitating the formation of a strong sell signal.
The price disrupted a vital horizontal support positioned at $22.2 per ounce and transgressed the long-term uptrend line highlighted in red.
As long as the price remains beneath this threshold, the bearish sentiment shall persist.

Alternative View:

Should the price manage to regain its footing above the designated yellow zone, it will be indicative of a buy signal.

USDCHF
Primary View:

Two weeks ago, we witnessed the price breaking through a pivotal horizontal resistance at $0.91, emphasized in green.
Post-breakout, it's customary for these resistances to undergo a retest as supports. One such retest happened last week.
During this retest, a hammer candlestick pattern, delineated in blue, took shape right on this significant support, pointing towards a buy signal.

Alternative View:

A descent below the green support could act as a precursor for a sell signal.