Weekly Market Commentary | 03.07 – 09.07

Weekly Market Commentary | 03.07 – 09.07
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.
  • We shall kick off the week with Switzerland's CPI inflation data and analysts eyeing a potential downtick from the previous 0.3% to 0.2%.
  • We're expecting the US ISM manufacturing PMI. The forecasts point to a marginal improvement from the previous 46.9 to 47.2, a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.
  • The US markets take a break for the Independence Day, making it a rather quiet trading day. All eyes will be on Australia instead, as the Reserve Bank is set to announce its interest rate decision. Expectations are on hold at 4.1%, but any surprises could trigger the AUD volatility.
  • The spotlight moves to China with the release of the Caixin services PMI. Estimates point to a 56.2 reading, hinting at robust service sector activity.
  • All focus will be on the OPEC meetings taking place throughout the day. As oil prices remain low, any supply decisions could stir up the energy market.
  • Wrapping up the day, we'll witness the US FOMC meeting minutes release, a key insight into the central bank's policy direction.
  • In the US, the ADP non-farm employment change is expected to clock in at 236K, setting the tone for Friday's NFP report.
  • We'll also get the usual weekly unemployment claims from the US, with forecasts pegging the number at 247K.
  • Other US data include the ISM services PMI, predicted to rise to 51.3; and the JOLTS job openings, anticipated to be just shy of 10M at 9.94M. Both figures will be watched closely as indicators of economic health.
  • The week rounds off with the highly-anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls. Before that, we'll have a speech from the Bank of England Governor Bailey that might well impact the Pound.
  • Lastly, jobs data from Canada and the US will be on the menu. Analysts are expecting a lower NFP reading at 222K. With a possible drop in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.6%, however, it will be interesting to see how the markets react.
Setups for This Week:
Primary View:
The pair was inside of the two-week, wedge-shaped bearish correction but, on Friday, the price escaped to the upside
This brings a very technical buy signal to the chart
Alternative View:
If the price comes back inside of the wedge, the buy signal will be cancelled
Primary View:
After the false breakout (green) from the head-and-shoulders pattern (yellow), the sentiment is truly positive
CAC broke the mid-term down trendline and came back above the 7350 resistance (orange), triggering a strong signal to buy
Alternative View:
CAC dropping below the orange area would bring a proper signal to sell
Primary View:
USDCAD is back on track after the triple bottom pattern which helped the price climb back above the key resistance on the 1.323 (yellow)
1.323 is currently confirmed as a support and as long as we stay above, we will have a proper signal to buy
Alternative View:
USDCAD dropping below 1.323 will trigger a signal to sell
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