Weekly Market Commentary | 08.01 – 14.01

Weekly Market Commentary | 08.01 – 14.01
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!
  • A quiet start with Japan observing a public holiday.
  • Focus on Switzerland as it releases its inflation data, expected at -0.1%. This figure could influence market perceptions about the Swiss economy's trajectory.
  • Attention turns to Tokyo, with inflation data anticipated to show a decrease to 2.1% as opposed to the former 2.3%.
  • Canadian retail sales figures are also due, with projections pointing to a 1.2% rise. This could offer insights into consumer spending trends in Canada.
  • Australia steps into the spotlight with its inflation report. Predictions suggest a slight easing of inflationary pressures, with a drop from 4.9% to 4.5%.
  • A speech by the Bank of England Governor Bailey is on the docket, potentially offering fresh insights into the UK monetary policy and economic outlook.
  • Focus shifts to the US as a crucial inflation piece of data is released. Expectations lean towards a minor uptick from 3.1% to 3.2% year-on-year, a figure that often sways market sentiments and Fed policy decisions.
  • The US will also release its regular unemployment claims data, providing ongoing insights into the labor market health.
  • China's inflation data is set to be revealed, with forecasts indicating a slight increase to -0.4% on a yearly basis.
  • The UK GDP figures could attract significant attention, especially with expectations of a bounce back to 0.2%. This data could impact market perceptions of the UK economic resilience.
  • Wrapping up the week, the US presents its PPI data, expected to rise to 0.1% and offering another angle on inflationary trends.
Setups for This Week:
Primary View:
  • The previous week marked a bullish shift for the American Dollar to Japanese Yen, with the pair breaking through a significant downtrend line (highlighted in red).
  • Despite the bearish correction towards the week's end, the overarching sentiment remains bullish.
Alternative View:
  • Should the price fall back below the red downtrend line, it would signal a shift towards the bearish market, indicating a potential sell opportunity.
Primary View:
  • Recently, the Australian Dollar has shown resilience, bouncing off crucial horizontal support, as well as dynamic support.
  • Maintaining positions above these support levels is indicative of a strong buy signal.
Alternative View:
  • A break below the orange horizontal and black dynamic support lines could flip the narrative, suggesting a sell signal for traders.
Primary View:
  • The pair is currently encountering a critical horizontal resistance who had previously acted as a support.
  • The prevailing sentiment will remain bearish unless there's a decisive break above the resistance level.
Alternative View:
  • Overcoming and sustaining above the orange resistance line would alter the market sentiment to bullish, potentially triggering a buy signal.
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