Weekly Market Commentary | 11.09 – 17.09

11 September 2023

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

Monday

Keep an eye out for China's New Loans data. With the anticipated number at a whopping 1275B, it's a sizable jump from the previous 346B. Lending behavior could indicate the health of the nation's economy.

Tuesday

For our UK traders, the Claimant Count Change is projected at 17.1K - a noticeable decrease from the previous 29.0K. Coupled with the Average Earnings Index holding steady at 8.2%, Britain's job market warrants a close watch.
At midday, turn your attention to the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. With forecasts hinting at a dip to -15.0 from the prior -12.3, Europe's economic powerhouse may be showing signs of concern.

Wednesday

UK's GDP m/m figures are on the horizon. After a 0.5% increase last period, a downturn of -0.2% is now projected.
Stateside, the CPI data will be in focus. Monthly Core CPI and CPI are forecast at 0.2% and 0.6% respectively. Annually, the CPI is expected to hit 3.6% - a subtle rise from 3.2%.

Thursday

Aussie traders will be eyeing the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. With job numbers expected to rise by 25.9K after a prior decrease of 14.6K and unemployment holding steady at 3.7%, the Australian job market seems resilient.

The Eurozone takes center stage in the afternoon. The Main Refinancing Rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.25%. The Monetary Policy Statement, however, will surely provide insights into the ECB's current stance and future monetary plans.
Across the Atlantic, a slew of US data is expected to drop. We're watching the Core PPI m/m projected at 0.2%, slightly lower from the previous 0.3%. Core Retail Sales m/m, expected at 0.4%, reveals a possible slowdown from the prior 1.0%. With PPI m/m expected at 0.4% and Retail Sales m/m at 0.2%, the US retail and production landscapes present a mixed bag. What’s more, Unemployment Claims are pegged at 225K - a slight rise from 216K.
Rounding up the afternoon, the ECB Press Conference will likely dominate the Euro trading, as traders and investors parse every word for hints of future policy moves.

Friday

Starting off with China's data reveals, the Industrial Production y/y is expected at 3.9%, while Retail Sales y/y is forecast at a promising 3.0%. Both indicators are up from their previous figures, suggesting potential bullish momentum for the Asian giant.
In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing Index is projected to come in at -9.5, an improvement from the alarming -19.0 from the previous period. The Industrial Production m/m is forecast at 0.2%, revealing a slowdown from the prior 1.0%. As the day progresses, traders will also watch for the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, expected to dip slightly to 69.2 from 69.5.

Setups for This Week:

USDJPY
Primary View:

The week commences with a bearish correction.
It seems that the price is gravitating towards the horizontal support on 144.7.
The pair remains ensconced within the channel-up formation delineated by red lines.
If the green support is breached, the price may venture towards the lower boundary of the channel-up formation. A bearish stance is thus expected for the week.

Alternative View:

A rebound from the green support line can catalyze a buy signal, targeting the upper echelon of the channel-up formation.

Dow Jones
Primary View:

The previous week culminated with the price rebounding off the long-term uptrend line highlighted in blue; an essential bastion for Dow Jones.
As long as we remain above this demarcation, optimism prevails.
It's anticipated that the black downtrend line will be tested this week.

Alternative View:

Should the price shatter the blue uptrend line, it will unfurl a long-term sell signal.

GBPCHF
Primary View:

The pair is ensnared in a sideways motion, both in the long haul and the immediate future. The latter commenced in mid-July.
Presently, the price is rebounding off horizontal support pegged at 1.11. As long as it remains north of this level, buying with an aim for 1.124 seems feasible.

Alternative View:

A descent below the 1.11 support would unfurl a robust sell signal.