Weekly Market Commentary | 12.02 – 18.02

Weekly Market Commentary | 12.02 – 18.02
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!
  • The week kicks off on a subdued note, with Japan and China taking a breather; China notably embarks on a week-long hiatus celebrating the New Year and Spring Festival.
  • Amidst a calm macroeconomic landscape, a highlight emerges with a speech from Bank of England Governor Bailey, poised to capture the attention of investors during the American session.
  • New Zealand sets the stage early with inflation expectations, offering a glimpse into future economic sentiment.
  • The UK follows suit, presenting its claimant count change, a key indicator of the job market's health.
  • The day crescendos with a dual inflation focus: Switzerland is anticipated to report a monthly inflation rise to 0.6%, while the US eyes a yearly inflation deceleration to 2.9%, setting the tone for potential policy adjustments.
  • The UK's inflation trajectory is set to ascend slightly to 4.1%, spotlighting the cost-of-living conversation.
  • Governor Bailey returns to the podium, likely to weave the fresh inflation data into a narrative on monetary policy and economic outlook.
  • Australia’s labor market is under the microscope, with unemployment rates expected to inch up, signaling shifts in employment dynamics.
  • The UK’s GDP projection tilts towards contraction, stirring discussions on economic resilience.
  • Across the pond, US retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index are projected to dip, painting a picture of consumer and business sentiment.
  • The UK’s retail scene is anticipated to see a 1.5% uptick, offering a pulse on consumer spending.
  • The US rounds out the week with a modest projection for producer inflation at 0.1%, alongside a hopeful nudge in consumer sentiment to 79.9, as per the Preliminary University of Michigan measure.

Setups for This Week:
  • Primary View:
    • The AUD/USD pair showcases a substantial head and shoulders pattern, highlighted with a yellow outline, indicating a bearish outlook.
    • Currently trading below the neckline, identified with a green color, indicating bearish momentum.
    • Despite hovering below the critical green and black downtrend lines, the pair's decline isn't accelerating, keeping the bearish sentiment intact.
  • Alternative View:
    • A breakout above the black downtrend line could shift momentum, potentially initiating a buy signal.
Dow Jones
  • Primary View:
    • On the hourly chart, Dow Jones trends upward within a channel-up formation, delineated by red lines.
    • Although the index reached new long-term highs (blue marker), it faced rejection, hinting at potential volatility.
    • The continuation within this ascending channel suggests a prevailing positive outlook.
  • Alternative View:
    • The recent high might be a deceptive breakout, and a breach below the channel's lower boundary could signal a shift to bearish territory.
  • Primary View:
    • The pair exhibits an ascending triangle formation, with resistance marked in green and supportive base in blue.
    • Breaking above the green resistance has activated a bullish signal, suggesting upward potential.
  • Alternative View:
    • Should the price retract beneath both the green and blue supports, it could transition into a sell signal, indicating bearish reversal.
Show More Articles
Axiory uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. You can click Accept or continue browsing to consent to cookies usage. Please read our Cookie Policy to learn more.