Weekly Market Commentary | 13.05 – 19.05

Monday:

• Inflation expectations in New Zealand were reported at 2.33%, setting the tone for the week with insights into consumer price trends in the region.

Tuesday:

• UK Claimant Count Change: Early data before the European session shows a claimant count change expected at 13.9 thousand.
• US Producer Price Index (PPI): Scheduled for release, with forecasts predicting a rise of 0.3%, indicating trends in wholesale price inflation.
• Earnings Report: Home Depot is set to publish its earnings before the market opens, likely influencing stock market movements early in the day.

Wednesday:

• Wage Price Index from Australia: Anticipated to be released, with expectations set at a 1% increase, providing insights into wage inflation and its potential impact on monetary policy.
• US Inflation Data: Highly anticipated data, with inflation on a yearly basis expected to decrease slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%.
• US Retail Sales: Expected to show a growth of 0.4%, offering a snapshot of consumer spending.
• Earnings Calendar: Cisco's earnings to be announced after market close, a significant event for tech sector investors.

Thursday:

• Australian Job Data: Employment change and the unemployment rate, which is expected to rise to 3.9%.
• US Unemployment Claims: Regular weekly data providing ongoing insights into the labor market.
• Earnings Report: Walmart’s earnings, set to be published before the market session begins, will be closely watched for their impact on retail sector sentiment.

Friday:

• China's Economic Data: A quieter end to the week with the release of industrial production and retail sales figures from China, helping gauge the economic recovery in one of the world’s leading economies.

Setups for This Week:

Silver 
Primary View:

• Recent Trends: Silver experienced a positive performance last week, although it closed on Friday with a bearish correction, suggesting a temporary pullback.
• Long-Term Outlook: Despite the recent dip, silver remains influenced by an overarching inverse head and shoulders pattern. This indicates that after this brief correction, silver is likely poised to resume its upward trajectory, targeting higher price levels in the long run.

Alternative View:

• Bearish Signal: If silver's price breaks the black line and falls below the blue neckline, it would signal a bearish reversal, suggesting a potential sell opportunity. This move would indicate a significant shift in market sentiment, possibly leading to further declines.

USD/CAD

Primary View:

• Support Bounce: Recently, the USD/CAD bounced off a long-term uptrend line, maintaining its position within a short-term sideways trend.
• Breakout Potential: There is a strong likelihood of a breakout occurring this week, given the sustained pressure against the boundaries of the current trading range.

Alternative View:

• Downside Breakout: Should the price breach the green horizontal support, it would constitute a sell signal. This scenario would indicate a weakening in the bullish sentiment and potentially initiate a new downtrend.

EUR/CAD

Primary View:

• Current Formation: The EUR/CAD is currently trading within an ascending triangle pattern, indicating accumulation and a potential for upward movement.
• Buying Signal: A breakout above the green horizontal resistance would provide a clear buy signal, suggesting that the EUR/CAD is ready to continue its upward momentum as it escapes the consolidation area.

Alternative View:

• Selling Signal: A break below the black dynamic support would serve as a sell signal. This move would suggest that the underlying bullish forces are waning, potentially leading to a decrease in the EUR/CAD's market value.