Weekly Market Commentary | 14.08 – 20.08

Weekly Market Commentary | 14.08 – 20.08
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.
  • A relaxed start to the week as the calendar is practically barren, mirroring the classic summer holiday lull.
  • Despite holiday observances in France and Italy, Tuesday brims with activity.
    • We kick off with the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Australia.
    • Industrial Production data from China is on the horizon, where analysts anticipate a decline to 4.3%.
    • The UK chimes in with its Claimant Count Change.
    • The day will culminate with Canada's inflation number, projected to inch up to 0.3%.
    • The US steals the spotlight with a slew of data, including Retail Sales, which is expected to hover around 0.4%, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index, anticipated at -0.3%.
  • The midweek has its fair share of announcements.
    • We commence with New Zealand's Interest Rate Decision. A continuation at 5.5% is the general consensus.
    • Shifting our focus to the UK, a substantial decrease in the inflation number is projected, from 7.9% down to 6.8%.
    • Wrapping up the day, we await the FOMC Meeting Minutes from the US, which often offers valuable insights into future monetary policies.
  • As we near the week's end, several essential indicators beckon.
    • Australia presents its Job Data, where unemployment rates are anticipated to nudge from 3.5% to 3.6%.
    • The US rounds off Thursday with its Unemployment Claims, where forecasts point to a figure of 240,000.
  • Closing the week on a softer note, significant data points are sparse.
    • The lone highlight comes from the UK in the form of Retail Sales, where a slight dip to -0.4% is projected.
Setups for This Week:
Primary View:
  • The price has finally touched the long-anticipated and crucial horizontal resistance level at 145.
  • Speculation is rife about a possible intervention from the Bank of Japan at this juncture.
  • This key resistance, highlighted in green on many charts, holds the potential to usher in a bearish correction.
  • However, should the price close above this green zone by the day's end, it would signal a strong buying opportunity.
Alternative View:
  • If a reversal pattern materializes at this green resistance level, it might be an opportune moment to go short.
Primary View:
  • The DAX begins the new week on a defensive note.
  • The index is targeting the 15,700-point horizontal support, delineated in orange on the chart.
  • Concurrently, the price is challenging the mid-term uptrend line, depicted in a striking purple hue.
  • If the index closes beneath the orange territory by the day's end, this could be seen as a cue to go short.
Alternative View:
  • A formation of a reversal pattern at the orange region might beckon traders to initiate long positions.

Brent Oil
Primary View:
  • Brent oil recently probed the $88 horizontal resistance, which is marked in green on the chart.
  • This zone has asserted its dominance as a formidable barrier, pushing the price away and igniting a bearish correction.
  • The prevailing short-term sentiment leans bearish, with the price gravitating towards the blue horizontal support at $79 per barrel.
Alternative View:
  • Should Brent close above the green bracket by the end of the trading session, it would suggest a favorable setup for long trades.
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