Weekly Market Commentary | 14.08 – 20.08
14 August 2023
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.
Monday:
- A relaxed start to the week as the calendar is practically barren, mirroring the classic summer holiday lull.
Tuesday:
- Despite holiday observances in France and Italy, Tuesday brims with activity.
- We kick off with the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Australia.
- Industrial Production data from China is on the horizon, where analysts anticipate a decline to 4.3%.
- The UK chimes in with its Claimant Count Change.
- The day will culminate with Canada's inflation number, projected to inch up to 0.3%.
- The US steals the spotlight with a slew of data, including Retail Sales, which is expected to hover around 0.4%, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index, anticipated at -0.3%.
Wednesday:
- The midweek has its fair share of announcements.
- We commence with New Zealand's Interest Rate Decision. A continuation at 5.5% is the general consensus.
- Shifting our focus to the UK, a substantial decrease in the inflation number is projected, from 7.9% down to 6.8%.
- Wrapping up the day, we await the FOMC Meeting Minutes from the US, which often offers valuable insights into future monetary policies.
Thursday:
- As we near the week's end, several essential indicators beckon.
- Australia presents its Job Data, where unemployment rates are anticipated to nudge from 3.5% to 3.6%.
- The US rounds off Thursday with its Unemployment Claims, where forecasts point to a figure of 240,000.
Friday:
- Closing the week on a softer note, significant data points are sparse.
- The lone highlight comes from the UK in the form of Retail Sales, where a slight dip to -0.4% is projected.
Setups for This Week:
USDJPY
Primary View:
- The price has finally touched the long-anticipated and crucial horizontal resistance level at 145.
- Speculation is rife about a possible intervention from the Bank of Japan at this juncture.
- This key resistance, highlighted in green on many charts, holds the potential to usher in a bearish correction.
- However, should the price close above this green zone by the day's end, it would signal a strong buying opportunity.
Alternative View:
- If a reversal pattern materializes at this green resistance level, it might be an opportune moment to go short.
DAX
Primary View:
- The DAX begins the new week on a defensive note.
- The index is targeting the 15,700-point horizontal support, delineated in orange on the chart.
- Concurrently, the price is challenging the mid-term uptrend line, depicted in a striking purple hue.
- If the index closes beneath the orange territory by the day's end, this could be seen as a cue to go short.
Alternative View:
- A formation of a reversal pattern at the orange region might beckon traders to initiate long positions.
Brent Oil
Primary View:
- Brent oil recently probed the $88 horizontal resistance, which is marked in green on the chart.
- This zone has asserted its dominance as a formidable barrier, pushing the price away and igniting a bearish correction.
- The prevailing short-term sentiment leans bearish, with the price gravitating towards the blue horizontal support at $79 per barrel.
Alternative View:
- Should Brent close above the green bracket by the end of the trading session, it would suggest a favorable setup for long trades.
