Weekly Market Commentary | 16.10 – 22.10
16 October 2023
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!
- We're launching into a surprisingly packed start to the week with the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US, which is anticipated to dip to -6.4.
- FOMC member Harker will share his insights, which could offer valuable cues about the US economic direction.
- As the day concludes, attention will pivot to New Zealand as CPI projections are set at a notable 1.9%.
- The day commences with the release of the monetary policy meeting minutes from Australia.
- Over in the UK, the Claimant count change figures are predicted around 2.3K..
- Canadian inflation data is set to draw attention, with its monthly CPI potentially leveling out at 0%.
- The US isn't left out, with retail sales forecasted to decelerate to 0.3%, a slip from the preceding 0.6%.
- Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Bullock will grace us with his economic perspectives.
- Economic buffs will keenly observe China's industrial production numbers with forecasts suggesting a subtle reduction from 4.5% to 4.3%.
- Back to the UK, inflation figures are on the radar with an expected modest decline to 6.6% from 6.7%.
- Australia remains in focus with its employment data set to be unveiled.
- The US unemployment claims are anticipated to remain consistent, hovering around the 210,000 range.
- A pivotal moment awaits as Jerome Powell from the FED takes the stage. His commentary could set the tone for market movements.
Setups for This Week:
- A softer end to the week, but no less important. The UK's retail sales data is foreseen to drop to -0.3%.
- Likewise, Canada's retail sales figures are also set to decline to -0.3%, mirroring the UK's anticipated trajectory.
- Last week saw a significant bounce from the upper line of the wedge pattern.
- The sentiment still leans towards the optimistic side. A second breakout attempt may be on the cards this week. Success hinges on the index maintaining above the 14900 point support, denoted by the upper orange line.
- A dip below the critical 14900 threshold will serve as a sell indicator.
- At last, we're seeing some real movement on this pair. This instrument has concluded its prolonged sideways trend, a trend that's been persisting since late October 2022.
- The recent breach of the sideways trend's support has activated a sell signal.
- A resurgence above the 1.108 level (re-entering the confines of the sideways trend) will serve as an indicator to go long. This scenario would signify a false breakout.
- October has proven to be quite favorable for gold. The prior week culminated in a triumphant break above the $1900 horizontal resistance barrier.
- Additionally, the upper boundary of the descending channel (outlined in black) was surpassed. As long as the price remains atop these two now-support regions, it's a robust long-term buy signal.
- A regression below the orange support, coupled with a reentry into the descending channel, would be a sell cue.