Weekly Market Commentary | 19.02 – 25.02

Weekly Market Commentary | 19.02 – 25.02
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!
  • A quiet start to the week as American and Canadian markets close for President's Day.
  • No Tier 1 data scheduled, allowing traders to reflect on the previous week's movements and prepare for upcoming events.
  • Attention turns to Australia with the release of the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, shedding light on the Reserve Bank of Australia's economic outlook.
  • Canada will also be in focus, presenting its latest inflation figures, which are crucial for commodity-driven market sentiments.
  • Australia continues to take center stage with the Wage Price Index expected at 0.9%, providing insights into wage growth and potential inflation pressures.
  • The day wraps up with the eagerly awaited FOMC Meeting Minutes from the U.S., offering valuable clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.
  • A packed day with PMI reports from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S., with most anticipated to fall below the 50 mark, signaling contraction.
  • Notable exceptions include the UK's Flash Services PMI at 54.5 and the U.S.'s Manufacturing PMI at 50.1 and Services PMI at 52, indicating areas of economic resilience.
  • Additional reports include Retail Sales from Canada and Existing Home Sales from the U.S., alongside Retail Sales numbers from New Zealand, making for a day rich in economic indicators.
  • A quieter close to the week with Japanese markets closed for the Emperor's Birthday.
  • The German IFO Business Climate, expected at 85.5, will be the key data point, providing insights into business sentiment within Europe's largest economy.
Setups for This Week:

Primary View:
  • Currently testing a significant horizontal resistance at 0.654, a pivot point that previously served as robust support.
  • A successful breach above this level may catalyze a bullish momentum, endorsing a buy signal.
Alternative View:
  • If the AUDUSD pair fails to surpass the 0.654 resistance, it could trigger a sell-off, illustrating a classic resistance-turned-support scenario.

Primary View:
  • The pair hovers above a crucial horizontal support at 0.851, with potential for recovery if it sustains above this threshold.
  • To initiate an upswing, the EURGBP must overcome the immediate blue resistance, marking the battleground for buyers.
Alternative View:
  • A downturn below the 0.851 support signals bearish dominance, activating a sell directive for traders.

Primary View:
  • GBPCHF remains buoyed above the 1.108 support level, indicating a prevailing positive outlook among market participants.
  • Maintaining above this support underscores the ongoing bullish sentiment, potentially extending gains.
Alternative View:
  • A descent below 1.108 could flip the market mood to bearish, compelling a short-selling strategy.
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