Weekly Market Commentary | 25.03 – 31.03

Weekly Market Commentary | 25.03 – 31.03
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!
  • The week kicks off gently with new home sales in the US, anticipated to reach 675,000 units. A precursor to the subdued week ahead as Easter approaches, signaling a slower pace in economic data releases.
  • Durable goods orders in the US are on the docket, with a 1.2% increase expected, showcasing the economic activities in the manufacturing sector.
  • The day wraps up with the CB Consumer Confidence Index, projected at 106.9, providing insights into the public's spending mood and economic outlook.
  • Attention shifts to Australia with its inflation figures predicted to inch up to 3.5%, a key indicator of the economic pressure down under.
  • Australia's retail sales are forecasted to moderate to 0.4%, offering a glimpse into consumer spending trends.
  • Canada's GDP growth is eyed at 0.4%, alongside the US's final GDP numbers for the quarter, pegged at 3.2%, highlighting the economic vitality.
  • The day closes with updates on pending home sales and the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiments in the US, giving a broader view of the housing market and overall consumer optimism.
  • Most key markets take a breather for Good Friday, leaving a light calendar with Tokyo's core CPI expected at 2.4%.
  • The week concludes with the US's core PCE price index at an anticipated 0.3% and a speech from Jerome Powell, potentially shedding light on future monetary policy directions amidst global economic recovery.
Setups for This Week:

Primary View:
  • The S&P500's ascent within its channel up formation has reached a pivotal moment as it nears the formation's upper boundary, suggesting an imminent test of resistance.
  • The trend's momentum leans towards a bearish tilt in the short term as the index nears the lower boundary of the channel.
Alternative View:
  • A break above the channel's upper boundary would signal a bullish shift, opening the door to new highs.

Primary View:
  • Following a false breakout, the EUR/GBP is setting its sights upwards, with recent activity marking new monthly highs.
  • A successful breach of the yellow resistance is anticipated, potentially unlocking a bullish advance.
Alternative View:
  • A reversal below the yellow resistance could catalyze a bearish downturn.

Primary View:
  • Silver's trajectory within the symmetric triangle has led to a rebound off the formation's upper edge, hinting at a bearish journey towards the triangle's lower extremity.
  • The current path suggests a selling opportunity, with the lower line of the triangle serving as the near-term target.
Alternative View:
  • Overcoming the upper resistance could pivot the sentiment to bullish, paving the way for a notable upswing.
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