Weekly Market Commentary | 29.01 – 04.02

Weekly Market Commentary | 29.01 – 04.02
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!
  • A quiet start to the week as traders digest the events of the previous one. With no major economic data releases scheduled, technical analysis will likely drive trading decisions.
  • All eyes are on Australia as their retail sales figures are anticipated, with expectations of a 1.9% decline.
  • Later in the day, the US takes the spotlight with the CB Consumer Confidence forecast to improve and reach 113.9, and JOLTS job openings expected at 8.73 million.
  • A data-packed day begins with Australian inflation, projected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year.
  • Chinese manufacturing PMI is up next, with predictions of an increase to 49.2.
  • Inflation figures from Germany are also due, expected at a modest 0.1%.
  • The US will bring several key reports: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast at 143K), FOMC Statement and Press Conference, Employment Cost Index, and Canadian GDP (expected to raise by 0.1%).
  • Kicking off February with China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, expected at 50.9.
  • The Eurozone inflation data is on the radar, anticipated to drop to 2.7%, with core inflation also expected to decrease to 3.2%.
  • The Bank of England's interest rate decision is in focus, likely holding at 5.25%. MPC official bank rate votes, however, might see a slight shift.
  • The day concludes with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, projected to fall to 47.
  • The week's climax features the US Non-Farm Payrolls, with estimates pointing to 177,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.8%.
  • The week wraps up with the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, forecast at 78.8.
Setups for This Week:

  • Primary View:
    • Currently trading within a sideways trend defined by a rectangle pattern (orange).
    • The week begins with the price testing the upper boundary of this rectangle.
    • A breakout above the upper line of the rectangle would signal a buying opportunity.
  • Alternative View:
    • A breach below the lower boundary of the rectangle pattern would indicate a selling signal.
  • Primary View:
    • Gold is exhibiting a sideways movement, confined within a triangle formation (black).
    • The new week opens with an attempt to breach the upper line of this triangle.
    • A successful breaking above this line would activate a buy signal.
  • Alternative View:
    • A downward breakout through the triangle's lower line would suggest a sell signal.
  • Primary View:
    • The pair is navigating a sideways trend within a falling wedge pattern (black).
    • Currently, it's testing a crucial horizontal support (orange).
    • Breaking below the orange support line would advocate for a short position.
  • Alternative View:
    • A rebound from the orange support and a subsequent breach of the wedge's upper line would trigger a buy signal.
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