Weekly Market Commentary | 30.01 – 05.02

Weekly Market Commentary | 30.01 – 05.02
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.
- The new week starts slowly with no Tier-1 data in Monday’s calendar
- Only the German Prelim GDP can catch our attention, where analysts expect no change (0%)
- Tuesday will start with retail sales and industrial production data from Japan
- Later in the day, Canada will publish the GDP, where a rise of 0.2% is expected.
- The day will finish with the CB Consumer Confidence number and the job data from New Zealand, where the employment change is expected to come at 0.3%
- Wednesday is the day! On that day, FED will probably rise rates to 4.75% but the statement and the press conference are what everybody will be waiting for.
- Before the main dish, we will be served with appetizers, in this case: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, both from the US
- Thursday will bring us two more rate decisions. Bank of England and European Central Bank, according to estimates, should rise the rates by 50bp.
- What would be the first Friday of the month without the NFP data, right? The number expected on Friday will be 193K and a small rise in the Unemployment rate (from 3.5% to 3.6%)
- The week will end with the ISM Services PMI Data from the US, where the market is expecting a comeback above the 50 level with expectations of 50.4 (from the previous number of 49.6).
Setups for This Week:

Primary View:
USDJPY continues trading inside of the channel down pattern (black)
Last week, the price did not manage to break its upper line and a new week starts with a drop
Price climbing above 1.32 would bring us a serious sell signal

Alternative View:
If the price will break the short-term dynamic support (red), we can expect a move downward with a possibility of a test of the lower line of the channel down pattern


Dow Jones

Primary View:
The American index continues trading sideways
The recent development here is the pennant formation (red)
Breakout to the upside, along with the breach of the 34300 resistances, should give us a proper signal to buy

Alternative View:
Dow Jones breaking the lower line of the pennant will be an invitation to go short



Primary View:
A similar situation on Dow Jones but in a shorter term can be found on the NZDUSD
Since the 23rd of January, the price is inside of the pennant formation.
Breakout to the upside will be an invitation to buy

Alternative View:
NZDUSD breaking the lower line of the pennant formation could be treated as a promising sell signal

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