Dollar suffers ahead of today's payrolls.

03/09/2021

Investors continued to dump the USD on Friday, and it was down six days in a row, pushing the EURUSD pair toward the 1.19 threshold, where the critical resistance is located. 

Should the euro rise above the 1.19 level, the medium-term outlook might change to bullish, targeting the psychological level of 1.20, where the 200-day moving average is also located.

Later in the day, volatility is expected to be highly elevated again as the US labor market data are due. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to show 750,000 new jobs in August, with the unemployment rate forecast to improve to 5.2% from 5.4%. However, July's NFP came out at 943,000. Therefore, it would still be a notable decline from the last month's figure. 

Additionally, the ADP employment report showed only 374,000 new jobs in August, circa half of expected. The manufacturing ISM also reported a notable decline in the employment subindex. 

As a result, we could see a weaker number than 750,000 today, which would most likely be very bullish for equities, metals, and bonds, but bearish for the USD as traders would be betting that the Fed will delay its tapering decision.

US indices are rising to new highs nearly every day, and today's data might push the indices further higher. Precious metals are also looking bullish, and after the short consolidation, they might be ready to accelerate higher again.
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