How to calculate the size of a position in Forex?

Imagine 10% of your account on a single trade, only to lose it all. If you calculate exactly how much lot size to select on each of your trades, you will avoid such losses and increase your chances of staying a profitable trader in the long term. By determining the ideal size of each forex position, seasoned traders generate consistent profits while minimizing losses to a minimum. Proper position sizing protects capital, manages risk, and maximizes profitability. In this guide, we will teach beginner traders how to calculate the ideal size for forex positions using proven strategies that have been extensively tested by professionals over many years. We will explore the fundamentals, formulas, tools, and advanced tips to ensure you always use accurate lot sizes in Forex and other markets.

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Forex position size explained

Position size simply means to decide how many units or lots to use to buy or sell an instrument. The instruments could be of any asset class such as Forex pairs, commodities, stocks, cryptos, and so on. Traders have to decide how much to risk on each trading position and calculating the exact lot size can mean the difference between blowing up an account and growing it over time. Position size is often overlooked in trading as it does not seem as critical as win rate and risk-reward ratio, but it is a mistake. Proper position size can decide your trading performance. Imagine opening a 1 lot position in the Forex EUR/USD pair when you only have several hundred dollars in your trading account. A simple move of several pips can seriously damage your trading account which will be difficult to recover. If you lose 50% of your trading balance, you need to make 100% profits to recover it. To avoid these risks, you have to calculate trade size precisely according to your account balance, pip value, etc. 

Critical components of position sizing

You can calculate trade size when you know the main components of position sizing. Here are the key components for position size calculation:

  • Account balance - Lot size is directly calculated based on your account balance, to ensure you have enough money to cover the required margin and give the trade enough room.
  • Risk percentage per trade - Many traders have a fixed risk percentage they risk per trade. It is generally accepted that traders should not risk more than 1-2% of their account balance, which is a very conservative and safe approach. 
  • Stop-loss distance - Position size also depends on your projected stop-loss distance in pips. If you have a small stop-loss distance at a few pips, then a bigger lot size might be appropriate. 
  • Win rate - If you have a lower win rate, you need to prepare for losing streaks, meaning you need to select a small lot size to ensure losses are not sharing your trading power. 
  • Risk-reward - How much you risk compared to potential profits is another crucial component of deciding the position size for your next trade. 

Calculating the ideal size of the trade is a function of all the components described above and when a trader takes into account all the components, they can use an ideal position size and ensure capital preservation. Pip value heavily depends on your position size. For example, 1 lot EUR/USD means 1 pip movement is around 10 USD. 

Why calculating the ideal size of trade matters

When the position size is too large, traders get exposed to many risks such as emotional trading, risk of ruin, and thinner chances of long-term survival. If you have 1 lot position on a 100-dollar account, then 10 pips adverse movement will blow up your trading account, meaning it is absolutely critical to select position size correctly. Another side effect of trading is emotional stress which will increase if you have large position sizes and some of them end up in losses. 

Proper position size is a critical part of risk management in online financial trading. It is usually the main reason why professional traders avoid catastrophic drawdowns and preserve their capital in the longer term. A drawdown represents a decline from the peak equity (available money) and if left unchecked catastrophic losses might occur. Traders often risk a fixed percentage of account size per trade, but dynamic position sizing is also a valid strategy. Some methods allocate an optimal fraction of the trading account for each trading position. However, there is a difference between position sizing and account balance-based allocation of capital. For example, the Kelly criterion enables traders to calculate how much to risk on any single trade and is closely related to position sizing. The more capital you have, the larger positions you can take, and vice versa. This is important to both protect your capital when a string of losses occurs and grow your account when profitable trades occur. 

Emotional trading often leads traders to use larger lot sizes after losses and more often than not they end up blowing up their accounts. Doubling down is a bad strategy in Forex trading and employing dynamic methods like the Kelly criterion is a much better option. 

A disciplined approach is also very beneficial in the long run. 

Common position-sizing mistakes

Here are the most common mistakes made by beginner traders when selecting their idea position size:

Over-leveraging 

Using excessive leverage is a common mistake among beginner traders and it is also very costly. A small diverse movement can end up in a large loss when you use a large lot size not consistent with your account balance. 

Ignoring pip value

Pip value varies by currency pair and lot size and trading the same lot size across different pairs without adjustment can result in more risks than the trader intended. 

Skipping stop-loss

Proper position size is effective as long as the trader has a well-defined risk technique like stop-loss. Seasoned traders are especially well-versed in using effective risk management strategies like dynamic stop-loss placing and they often use trailing stops. The bottom line here is to always use stop-loss orders to ensure your position size is effective. If you calculate the position size correctly but allow losses to go twice your preferred size then you will damage your account and position size will lose its effectiveness. 

Inconsistent risk limits

Changing risk percentage from trade to trade based on just feelings is a common mistake among novices, costing them lots of money. Erratic performance is what you need to eliminate from your trading and transform it into scientific and systematic. 

The one effective method is to use a fixed fraction or percentage of your account. For example, not risking more than 2-3% on any single trade ensures your trading account stays intact in the long term. 

Core formulas and step-by-step calculations

Ideal forex position sizing requires detailed calculations and knowledge of proper formulas. The simple formula looks like this:

Position Size (in lots) = (Account Balance × Risk %) ÷ (Stop-Loss in pips × Pip Value per lot)

By following this formula, beginners can develop a disciplined approach to risk management as they need to have exact numbers for their strategy defined. 

This formula ensures that even if your stop-loss is hit, you only lose exactly the amount you wanted to risk and nothing more, which is absolutely critical in online financial trading. 

What each term means:

  • Account balance = Total amount of money in your trading account (for example 1,000 USD).
  • Risk % = The percentage of your account you are willing to risk on every single trade (1% = 10 dollars).
  • Stop-loss (in pips) = The distance in pips between your entry price and stop-loss placement price.
  • Pip value per lot = The value of one pip for one standard lot. 

Now that you know what each constituent part means, let’s discuss some practical examples of position size calculations. 

How to calculate the size of a forex position

For example, if you have a 1,000 USD Forex trading account and a fixed risk percentage of 5% per trade (remember it is always better to go 2-3% per trade) maximum, and trade EUR/USD pair where 1 pip is around 10 dollars per lot traded (1 standard lot = 100,000 units), and your average stop-loss is placed 10 pips away, then the correct lot size would be:

1,000 * 5% / 10 * 10 = 50 / 100 = 0.5 lots

If you want to risk no more than 1% on each trade then the position size with the 1,000 dollar account and the same parameters as above would be:

Position size = 1,000 * 1% / 10 * 10 = 0.1 lots

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The Kelly Criterion - ideal forex position sizing

The Kelly Criterion is a dedicated position sizing strategy that is used by seasoned traders to calculate the optimal amount of risk on each trade to maximize long-term growth while simultaneously reducing the risk of ruin at a minimum.

Why you should use the Kelly Criterion in your online trading:

  • Focus on compounding - The method finds a perfect spot between too low risks (slow growth) and too much risk (high chances of ruin), which is useful to grow your account steadily with minimum risks of blowing it up. 
  • Drawdown control - Employs mathematical formulas to balance risk and reward at the perfect point. 
  • Disciplined and systematic - Another huge benefit of this technique is it promotes disciplined trading as it uses actual performance metrics (win rate and risk-reward ratio) to size positions, meaning you need to know the exact stats of your trading plan.

Here is the main formula of the Kelly Criterion technique:

kelly-criterion-formula.jpg

Where: 

  • f∗ = Fraction of capital to risk
  • b = Reward-to-risk ratio
  • p = Probability of a win
  • q = Probability of a loss (1-p)

To drive the point home, let’s consider some practical examples.

Examples for a 1,000 USD trading account

Let’s calculate the ideal forex position sizing for a 1,000 USD trading account, where the win rate is 55%, and the trader employs a 1:2 risk=reward ratio (risking 50 dollars for a potential win of 100 dollars).

f = (2 * 0.55 - 0.45)/2 = 0.325 or 0.3

As we can see, around 32.5% can be allocated which is 325 dollars per trade. This is very aggressive and traders can use half of that amount to ensure account growth with minimized risks.

Let’s also consider an example of a 50% win rate trading system with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio to see why Kelly Criterion is an effective calculator method. 

f = (1 * 0.5 - 0.5) / 1 = 0

As we can see, this system has no edge and is guaranteed to lose money when we consider commissions and spreads, hence the Kelly formula accurately calculates that you should risk on this strategy 0 dollars. 

All these examples indicate that a trader needs to develop a trading strategy where they have well-defined risks and potential rewards instilling discipline and a systematic approach. Do not forget to calculate the pip value before using any of the formulas. It can be easily done by built-in MT4 and MT5 pip measurement features. Trading platforms usually calculate points size and 10 points is a 1 pip, something to keep in mind. 

Tools and calculators

Apart from being able to calculate the pip value, MT4 and other advanced platforms have built-in position size calculators which are automatic once a trader opens their position. If you want to calculate your position size before opening a trade (which is the correct way of doing it), spreadsheets could be a great help, where you create a calculator and use it every time you want to calculate your position size. A Forex demo account is also a great way to test your strategies and calculate live pip values to ensure your calculations reflect real-world values and not theoretical ones. 

Position sizing for different account sizes

Many retail traders typically have below 1,000 USD in trading capital, which is referred to as Micro accounts. Accounts between 1,000 and 10,000 are considered small accounts, and anything beyond 10k USD should be considered a standard account. When trading on a micro account, you should try not to risk more than 10 dollars on each trade to ensure your account stays intact until the moment you are well-versed in increasing your account to a small account. On a small account, traders can easily use 0.1 and above position sizes but should avoid open trades with 1 lot and more. Standard accounts which are above 10k dollars, allow traders to open 1 lot positions. Traders should always calculate the size of their positions using position sizing formulas discussed above. If you have a well-defined risk-reward ratio (which you must test and develop), the Kelly Criterion will provide an effective technique to ensure constituent account growth.

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