Busy Wednesday should rock the trade on the USD
01 February 2023
The first month of 2023 is already history. It was an awesome month for Gold and Stocks. SP500 added 6.1% in January and DAX rose by 8.6%. Gold finished the first month with a 6.5% rise. Yesterday’s session was pretty helpful in that, especially for the SP500, which ended Monday with a 1.46% rise.
The calendar yesterday wasn’t very pleasant for the pairs from the Antipodes: AUD and NZD. The day started badly for the AUD as the retail sales in Australia came much below the expected number (-3.9% vs -0.2%). The day ended badly for the NZD as the job data in New Zealand disappointed with the employment change at 0.2% and the unemployment rate rising to 3.4%.
The US also posted some weaker numbers. CB Consumer Confidence dropped more than expected to 107.1 and Chicago PMI came at 44.3, which was the fifth consecutive month below 50. But that was yesterday! Wednesday brings us new attractions and is actually the day that everybody awaits. Today, FED will probably rise the rates by 25bp and then present its statement and give the press conference. Words used in the statement and at the press conference will be for sure very influential.
Before FED, we will have a warmup from the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the JOLTS Job Openings in the US. Both numbers are expected to be lower than the month before. Wednesday morning will be also interesting for the Euro as countries like Spain, Italy, France, and Germany will show their Manufacturing PMIs. We will also find out the flash estimate of the latest inflation in the Euro Zone, where a print of 9 is expected, which would be a decline from the previous one of 9.2%.
As you can see, we should not feel bored today when looking at the charts. From the early hours, the calendar will print fresh, influential data. Crème de la crème will be of course the FED later today. Indices await this event with a small optimism, while the moves on the Dollar completely disappeared and we can see the American currency moving completely sideways in the past few days. That will most probably end today.