Euro Breaks From Downward Channel Ahead of ECB Meeting

Euro Breaks From Downward Channel Ahead of ECB Meeting
It looks like the EURUSD pair has finally moved up from the medium-term downtrend channel, likely prompting further gains in the following days and weeks.
During the London session on Thursday, the pair was seen flat, trading above 1.07 and waiting for today's ECB monetary policy verdict.

ECB with promises but no action

When the European Central Bank meets later today to vote on monetary policy, it is widely likely to keep its key deposit rate at -0.50 percent. Although, the central bank may signal the halt of its regular asset purchase program (APP) on July 1.

However, a strong indication for a July lift-off should be on the table, and the current deposit rate will likely change for the first time since 2014. In addition, it will be the first time rates have gone up since 2011.

"Markets are pricing in a total of 130bp of tightening by year-end, which would imply a 50bp hike at one of the four remaining meetings - after the June one - this year." said analysts at ING.

Apart from the ECB decision, the macro calendar will offer only the usual Thursday's US jobless claims, which market players will likely ignore due to the ECB press conference at the same time.

Earlier today, Chinese May exports were up 16.9% year on year, significantly above April's 3.9% increase, while imports increased 4.1% yearly, the first increase in three months and compared to flat growth in April.

Elsewhere, US stocks seem to have issues posting new highs, possibly leading to another leg lower in the near future. On the other hand, EU bourses remain in their medium-term uptrends, posting higher highs and lows.
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