Finishing the bearish week for the USD
25 November 2022
Last week was positive for the Dollar and many could see the possibility to end the bearish correction on the American currency. It seems that this week will end negative for the Dollar again, which extends the hopes for further USD weakening in December.
The pivotal moment this week were the FOMC Minutes published on Wednesday. The minutes were dovish as we found out that the officials are keener to see smaller interest rises in the future. At the same time, they expressed concerns about a negative influence of higher rates on the economy.
Yesterday, the US market was closed due to the Thanksgiving Day. This did not stop traders in keeping the buying pressure on, with the German index Dax making new, mid-term highs. Changes on the American Indices were marginal but the price still stayed close to the local tops. Indices are getting stretched to the upside and the risk of correction is on the rise, but those playing shorts are pretty much getting smashed by the running bulls so far.
Commodities are trading mixed. Previous metals remain strong and enjoying the weaker USD, however, oil is trading close to the mid-term lows. The latest fundamental occurrence that influences the black gold the most is the price cap on Russian oil proposed by the G7 countries. It is above current trading levels as many countries, particularly in Asia, are already paying for Russian oil with huge discounts.
The calendar after the Thanksgiving Day is empty with the most important data today already published. Tokyo Core Inflation came higher than expected and is currently supporting the bullish move on the JPY. On the European front, we learned that the German GDP came higher than predicted as well - on 0.4% (0.3% expected).