Impact of Surprising GDP and Inflation Figures on Thursday's Market, and What to Expect on Friday
30 June 2023
On Thursday, we observed some interesting shifts in the market. The day was marked by positive surprises from Germany and the U.S, which significantly impacted their respective currencies and broader financial markets. Inflation in Germany rose slightly higher than expected at 0.3%, compared to the forecast of 0.2%.
In the U.S, the final GDP numbers turned out to be quite optimistic, coming in at 2% against the predicted 1.4%. This bullish data demonstrated the resilience of the U.S economy, even amid inflation concerns. Additionally, the unemployment claims in the U.S fell to 239,000, lower than the expected 264,000, signaling a strengthening labor market.
The EURUSD experienced a drop, reaching weekly lows. This indicates a strong performance from the US Dollar on the forex market, buoyed by positive economic data and hawkish remarks from the Fed. The USDJPY pair climbed above the 145 mark overnight, hitting its highest level in 7.5 months, reflecting a resurgence of the US Dollar against the Yen as well. Indices too had an impressive week. European indices showed notable recovery, rising significantly after bouncing off key supports on Monday.
In the commodities market, gold hit new monthly lows, extending its bearish streak. In contrast, Brent oil experienced a bullish bounce after testing the crucial 71.7% support level.
As for Friday, the morning was marked by the release of Tokyo inflation data, which came in lower than expected at 3.2% against the expected 3.4%. This could potentially influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions moving forward.
Later in the day, we're expecting Eurozone inflation data, which is anticipated to be 5.6%. Given the recent trend in inflation surprises, traders will be watching this closely. Also, GDP data from Canada is due, which is projected to come in at 0.2%. Any significant deviation from these expected figures could trigger volatility in the respective currencies and broader market.