The end of this week is probably not the most exciting time in the market for you. We have a rather holiday mood caused by the forthcoming Easter. Actually, most markets will already be closed today, apart from the American one. Interestingly, today we will have a publication of job data from the US, including the famous NFP. The number of 228K is expected, with the previous reading of 311K. With many markets being closed, liquidity will be lower, which means that volatility can jump through the roof as it takes less money to move the market. It will definitely be very interesting to see the market's reaction to the data, especially if there is a miss.
Apart from the forthcoming NFP, not much is really happening. Since Tuesday, EURUSD has been moving sideways close to the long-term highs. The last two days have also seen a sideways move for USDJPY. Worth noting is the recent jump in currencies from the antipodes against the American dollar, so AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Both of them were testing the mid-term up trendlines, and both tests resulted in a bounce to the upside. This may indicate that the next few days can be bullish. Of course, everything depends on today’s NFP, so using technical analysis today does not make much sense, and that is the reality.
The last two days brought us a slight correction in Gold and a flat correction in Oil. We will leave it as it is since today, these instruments won’t be traded. For the next episode, we have to wait until next week, and my base scenario is still the gap-closing movement in Oil and a continuation of a bearish correction in Gold.
In the end, a few words about indices, which had a good session yesterday. The bearish correction was stopped, or maybe paused, at high levels. Demand remains strong, so the mid-term sentiment is still positive.