Hello traders, and welcome to Friday, the final trading day of what has been a tense and turbulent week. The macro calendar is practically empty, largely due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which is halting the release of many economic reports. As a result, today’s trading will likely be driven more by technicals and sentiment than by fresh fundamental data. Despite the quiet calendar, there’s nothing quiet about the market mood — the atmosphere is heavy, risk appetite is fading, and investors are clearly in a defensive mode.
The most visible weakness can be seen on the indices, which are extending their declines after yesterday’s sell-off. The sentiment on global equities is firmly negative, and the correction that started earlier this week is deepening. Traders are increasingly turning away from risk assets and moving toward safer alternatives, which is visible on the currency market, where both the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc — the classic safe havens — are showing strong gains. Other major currencies, especially commodity-linked ones, are under significant pressure, reflecting the broader risk-off tone dominating global markets.
Turning to commodities, gold continues to climb, adding yet another strong session to its incredible rally. However, there’s growing concern that the metal may be entering a bubble stage. Reports and photos of queues of people worldwide trying to buy physical gold are surfacing — a telltale sign that retail investors are joining late, often marking the final stage of a bubble. Smart money may already be using this surge in retail demand as an opportunity to take profits. Silver, in contrast, is not following gold’s path and is struggling on Friday, suggesting some divergence in the metals market. Meanwhile, oil remains in trouble — it dropped sharply again, hitting new long-term lows near levels last seen in April and May, before a small technical rebound emerged.
Finally, we must talk about cryptocurrencies, which remain at the heart of this risk aversion. The crypto market crash that started late last week continues to weigh heavily on sentiment. Bitcoin is now approaching its lows from last Friday, and Ethereum follows closely behind. The scale and speed of the crypto decline have shaken traders’ confidence, feeding broader market fear.
In short, Friday opens with a risk-off tone — equities are bleeding, safe havens are thriving, and traders are questioning whether gold’s unstoppable rally is nearing its top. With fundamentals largely absent today, price action and sentiment will decide the tone of the session.