S&P 500 Teeters on the Edge of the Uptrend Line — Will Buyers Step In?
28 September 2023
Hello traders, as we delve into Thursday, market movements are catching our collective gaze, with significant shifts and pivotal moments shaping the financial landscape.
Starting with the macro calendar, yesterday's data brought a sliver of positivity. The durable goods orders surpassed expectations, propping up the dollar. However, this boost didn't translate for the indices. As we started today, a hint of gloom settled with Australia's retail sales inching only to 0.2%, missing the anticipated 0.3%. The day promises more data-driven insights with Germany and Spain releasing their inflation numbers and the U.S. unveiling its final GDP forecast pegged at 2.2%. And as we wrap up the American session later today, Jerome Powell will be addressing the financial community, a discourse that's always awaited with bated breath.
Diving into the world of indices, yesterday concluded with an attempt at a reversal. The S&P 500 etched a hammer on its long-term uptrend line, offering a glimpse of optimism. Yet, for the market sentiment to truly lean bullish, it's imperative that today's session echoes the bullish sentiment. NASDAQ, on the other hand, is battling to hold its ground at the 14,550 support mark. Although there was a glimmer of a reversal, the onset of today's trading day is feeling the weight of bearish pressures. The DAX didn't lag, sketching its own hammer. But as any seasoned trader knows, a lone hammer isn't a beacon of hope. We need the subsequent session to showcase bullish momentum, complete with higher peaks and troughs, to consider a buying signal.
Over at the forex market, the EURUSD is under palpable selling pressure, moving steadily within the confines of the channel down formation. In fact, there's an evident push to breach the lower boundary of this formation, highlighting the pair's vulnerability. Given this backdrop, it hardly raises eyebrows to see USDJPY and USDCHF charting new mid-term zeniths. The buyer's market is dominant there, with purchasing pressures escalating.
But commodities aren't trailing in market dynamism. Gold, once the beacon of stability, witnessed a sharp descent, faltering at the $1,900 support mark. Presently, it's charting territories unseen since mid-March. Silver, while still trailing gold, is inching closer to its crucial juncture – a pivotal horizontal support at $22.2 paired with the uptrend line. A breach here could spell dire consequences for silver. However, it's this very breach that silver stakeholders are keenly observing. In a contrasting narrative, oil is riding the high wave. WTI breached a significant support at $94 per barrel, revisiting highs from previous months. Currently, it's enjoying its zenith since August 2022. Both WTI oil and Brent have sketched new mid-term peaks, although Brent is yet to surpass the highs recorded in October and November. These figures remain the targets for the ongoing bullish momentum.