Will the Indices Reversal Continue its Uptrend or Falter?
02 October 2023
Welcome traders to another exciting week of trading opportunities. Last week gave us an array of signals, intriguing momentum shifts, and market movements. As we usher in a new week, let's try to decode what these signs might mean for our strategies and where we might find the most promising opportunities.
The narrative last week around indices was a tale of two halves. Though the week overall bore a bearish tint, we saw the tides change in the latter half. This raises a crucial question: Was this a mere short-lived bounce or the inception of a more prolonged uptrend? Only time will tell.
However, before diving deep into the currencies, it's imperative we shed some light on commodities, especially given the significant movements we witnessed last week. The story with gold is a somber one. The metal seems to be in free fall, having suffered six consecutive bearish sessions. The breach of the key horizontal support at $1,900 further casts a shadow over its prospects. Silver echoes this sentiment, having shattered vital supports both horizontal and dynamic. Both gold and silver send out strong sell signals.
Meanwhile, oil was on a bullish march, but WTI met a formidable obstacle. A critical horizontal resistance at $94, combined with the channel's upper line, halted its progress, hinting at a mid-term sell signal.
Now, to currencies. The week kickstarts on a relatively mellow note. The American dollar is flexing its muscles, while its counterparts from the eastern hemisphere, notably the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen, seem to be retreating. On the technical side, EURUSD is back within its descending channel. The USDJPY pair is ambitiously reaching for new mid-term peaks. Concurrently, USDCHF seems to have found solace at the crucial horizontal 0.91 level.
Rounding things off with the macro calendar, Mondays typically offer a subdued lineup. With the Chinese and Canadian markets observing a closure today, focus inevitably shifts westward. The ISM Manufacturing PMI from the U.S., projected at 47.8, will undoubtedly command attention. Also, market participants will keenly await insights from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, scheduled for the European session's conclusion.