A lot is unfolding on the Moderna chart, especially following their earnings report on August 1st. While the earnings themselves weren't disastrous, the forward guidance was notably negative. The consensus dropped significantly from a previous estimate of $4 billion. This reduction is primarily driven by three factors: lower EU sales projections for 2024, a competitive environment for respiratory vaccines in the US, and an overall bearish outlook.
On the technical front, the earnings report catalyzed a substantial drop, resulting in a sell signal. Previously, the price had been defending the green horizontal support and the orange dynamic uptrend line. However, these supports were breached with a bearish gap, indicating a significant shift in sentiment. The price is now trading well below these support levels, reinforcing the negative outlook.
For any potential bullish reversal, the price would need to climb back above the previously mentioned support levels. However, given the current market dynamics and the negative forward guidance, the likelihood of this occurring seems limited. Investors should watch these levels closely for any signs of recovery but remain cautious given the prevailing bearish sentiment.