Perhaps the most peculiar asset of 2026 so far has been Crude Oil. It started the year as a very unpopular asset, as it had been going down for three years straight, with continually diminishing volatility to go along with it. Following the start of the war, prices shot up to $120 in a matter of days. Counterintuitively, it has stayed there. Economists priced doom scenarios with Oil above $90 as the price surges would ripple through the economy, forcing central banks to hike rates, and put even more stress on an already fragile global economy.
Crude Oil on the Daily Timeframe
Despite those doom scenarios, however, the price has gone absolutely nowhere. If anything, it has been contracting in a tighter and tighter range, with surely a breakout coming soon. The direction of this breakout is purely due to fundamental developments, though, and thus not something to be anticipated through TA.
The only thing we can use Technical Analysis for is assessing where the price could go if a definitive approach to the Iran/U.S. conflict is decided. In the case of resolution, the logical short-term target seems $67 as price fills the open gap and completely retraces its war move up.
Oil on the Monthly Timeframe
To find an upside target, we need to go all the way to the Monthly timeframe, looking back to 2008 to find highs at these levels. A logical stopping area for price if it were to break out is the $128-$133 area, where it would likely be temporarily (if not definitively) halted.