Major Decision Point for USD/JPY as Price Tests February–July Zone
15 October 2025
In today’s technical analysis, let’s take a closer look at the American dollar to Japanese yen (USD/JPY), where a critical technical battle is unfolding on the daily chart. After several consecutive sessions of bearish correction, the pair has finally reached an absolutely key support area, which may determine its next major move. This orange horizontal level is not just any price zone — it has historical significance, having served as the lows from February and the highs from both March and July. Earlier this month, the price broke above this zone, confirming its importance, and now we are seeing it retested as a support.
This test is technically crucial. If the buyers successfully defend this orange support, it would likely spark a bullish reversal and could be the start of a new upward leg in the ongoing uptrend. Such a bounce would confirm that previous resistance has truly turned into support — a classic continuation signal for long-term traders. In that scenario, we could see price heading back toward the recent highs, potentially extending the bullish cycle that started earlier in the year.
However, traders must also remain cautious, as the stakes here are high. A breakout below the orange support and a daily candle closing beneath it would completely invalidate the bullish outlook and instead trigger a proper long-term sell signal. Such a move would open the door for a deeper correction and a possible shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. The next few sessions will therefore be critical for USD/JPY — this is a classic case of support under siege, where one candle may decide the direction for the weeks to come.