Hello traders, and welcome to the final trading day of June. Unlike the usual quiet start to the week, this Monday kicks off with a healthy dose of action both in the calendar and across the markets. It's not just any week either — this one is shortened due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday. That means major economic data, including the closely watched U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, will be released earlier than usual, landing on Thursday instead.
We’ve already had manufacturing PMI data from China, which came in line with expectations. The manufacturing print remained below the 50 level, indicating continued contraction, while the non-manufacturing figure held just slightly above 50, suggesting modest growth in services. These numbers didn’t deliver any major shocks but set a neutral tone for the session. Traders now turn their attention to the German Prelim CPI, expected at 0.2%, which could stir some movement in the euro as the European morning unfolds.
The market opened with a clearly risk-on tone. Futures on major equity indices are moving higher, showing strong appetite from investors. Indices in the U.S. are either at or flirting with all-time highs, and European markets are attempting to follow suit. The rally continues to be underpinned by stable macro data, easing inflation concerns, and the assumption that central banks, while cautious, are nearing the end of their tightening cycles.
On the forex front, the day began with a softer U.S. dollar, but as European traders joined the fray, the greenback began to claw back early losses. The British pound and Swiss franc are showing signs of weakness, while the Japanese yen started the day strong before giving up some gains in the past hour. Yen strength overnight suggests some haven interest, but the reversal could be tied to stabilizing risk sentiment.
In the commodities space, oil prices started the day on a weaker note but are currently testing key horizontal support levels. The price action around these zones will be critical — a successful defense could pave the way for a rebound, while a failure might extend last week’s bearish pressure. Meanwhile, gold is trying to recover from a tough week. Early Monday trading shows a push to the upside, and other metals are joining in. Platinum is up over 2.5% as it leads the bounce, while silver and copper are also in the green.
With several important speeches ahead this week from central bank heavyweights like Powell, Ueda, and Bailey — and with crucial inflation data from the Eurozone due on Tuesday — the stage is set for a week that’s likely to pack its biggest punches before Thursday.
Let’s see if this early bullish energy carries through the rest of the session — and whether the final day of June ends with a continuation of this broad risk-on momentum.