Hello traders, welcome to Wednesday. We’re entering a busy mid-week session with a calendar that can easily reshape market sentiment. The spotlight is on North America, where we are awaiting two major monetary policy decisions. First comes the interest rate decision from Canada, where no change is expected. Later, all eyes will turn to the FOMC: the interest rate decision, economic projections, the statement, and Powell’s press conference. The market consensus is for a 25-basis-point cut in the US, and the reaction will depend entirely on whether the Fed confirms this path or pushes back against expectations.
Ahead of these events, the American dollar has been strong for several days, although Wednesday itself starts with a mild pullback. The Canadian dollar is also firming up on the back of recent momentum. The brightest spots in today’s session, however, are the Australian and New Zealand dollars, both pushing higher and showing independent strength. On the opposite side stands the Japanese yen, which remains the weakest currency not only this week but also over the past 10 days and even the past month. The yen’s persistent decline is clearly an ongoing structural theme in the FX market.
On commodities, we again see a split between energy and precious metals. Oil continues to fall sharply, extending several days of downside pressure. Meanwhile, precious metals tell a different story: silver is pushing higher, while gold is trading lower, creating an unusual divergence inside the metals group. Finally, cryptocurrencies continue their short-term recovery. Yesterday was very strong for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, but despite that, Bitcoin remains below the key $100,000 resistance. As long as this psychological barrier is intact, medium- and long-term sentiment remains negative, as cryptos are still in a broader bearish phase.