Hello traders, and welcome to Monday — the start of a new but shorter trading week, with market closures expected on Thursday. Despite elevated geopolitical tensions following the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, the markets opened with relative calm, defying expectations of dramatic weekend gaps.
Let’s begin with the economic calendar. From China, we’ve already seen industrial production data land in line with forecasts, while retail sales surprised to the upside, coming in at 6.4%, significantly above expectations. Later today, eyes will be on the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is anticipated to post a reading of -5.9.
On the commodities front, oil opened with a strong bullish gap amid geopolitical concerns, but that early momentum didn’t last. Prices quickly reversed, and oil is now retreating, struggling to hold onto its early gains. A similar picture is emerging on gold, which is also trending lower — further reinforcing a risk-on sentiment.
The currency market offers more confirmation of this mood. Traditional safe havens — the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc — are currently the weakest performers, a classic signal that investors are leaning toward riskier assets. That’s mirrored in stock index futures, which opened positively and are pushing higher into the start of the European session.
Despite the volatile backdrop, markets appear to be stabilizing, at least for now. Let’s see whether this upbeat tone sustains through the rest of the week, or if fresh headlines tilt sentiment back toward caution.