January is now fully behind us, and it ended on a very volatile and aggressive note. The most notable development was the sharp decline in precious metals toward the end of the month. Gold and silver both saw heavy selling pressure, closing January with strong downside momentum. Over the weekend, this negative tone was reinforced by another leg lower in Bitcoin, which suffered a significant sell-off at the end of both the week and the month.
Now the focus shifts to how February is starting. From the macro calendar, today’s main release is US ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected at 48.5, which keeps the manufacturing sector in contraction territory. On the earnings side, the day is front-loaded with results from Walt Disney before the market opens, while Palantir will report earnings after the market close. These are the two most relevant corporate events on today’s calendar.
From a fundamental and geopolitical perspective, attention remains on the relationship between the US and Iran. Over the weekend, there was no escalation. The Trump administration communicated through multiple channels that it remains open to negotiations with Iran. This de-escalation narrative is already being reflected in market pricing, particularly in energy.
Looking at market positioning at the open of the new month, index futures are clearly on the red side. Equity futures are trading lower, signaling visible weakness across indices as February trading gets underway.
In the currency market, we are opening with broad-based weakness in the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and most European currencies. The euro is an exception and is showing relative strength, while the US dollar is also slightly firmer at the start of Monday’s session.
Commodities remain under pressure, extending the weakness seen at the end of last week. Silver is down around 5%, while gold is lower by nearly 2%. The biggest mover, however, is oil. Crude is down more than 4% at the open of the new week, a move that aligns closely with the easing of geopolitical risk between the US and Iran and reduced risk-premium pricing.
This sets the tone for the first trading day of February 2026. Risk appetite is clearly subdued, commodities are under pressure, and markets are starting the new month defensively. The key question now is whether this weakness is just a continuation of end-of-month positioning, or the beginning of a broader shift in sentiment as February unfolds.