In today's analysis, we revisit the Australian dollar to Japanese yen (AUD/JPY) pair, which we last examined on June 25th. At that time, the price was approaching a potential breakout point from a well-defined symmetric triangle and a horizontal rectangle pattern.
The breakout did come—but not in the way bulls would have hoped. During the Asian session, AUD/JPY briefly pushed above the upper boundary of the triangle and rectangle, suggesting a bullish breakout. However, that move was quickly reversed. The price failed to hold above the yellow resistance area and rapidly returned inside both formations.
This price action forms a classic false breakout, which often serves as a strong technical signal in the opposite direction. With the pair now trading back below key resistance levels and re-entering the consolidation zones, the sentiment has turned decisively negative. As long as the price remains inside the triangle and rectangle, the bias shifts toward the downside.
Unless bulls manage to reclaim and sustain levels above the yellow resistance, the setup favors sellers with a potential target near the lower boundary of the triangle.