In today's technical outlook, let's turn to EUR/USD, which—despite being modestly affected by the Israeli strike on Iran—remains largely driven by technical factors rather than panic or geopolitical volatility, as we’ve seen with oil.
Currently, the chart suggests a potential double top formation, with the first peak appearing in early April, marked by a green resistance line. Recently, the pair made another attempt to break that high, pushing slightly above it before pulling back. This move may prove to be a false breakout, visually emphasized with a red rectangle, highlighting the failure of bulls to sustain the upside momentum.
Adding to the bearish case, EUR/USD had been moving within an ascending channel, marked with black lines. It briefly escaped to the upside, suggesting potential bullish continuation, but then fell back below the channel's upper boundary—again signaling a classic false breakout. This kind of price behavior often precedes a deeper correction or a trend reversal.
However, a proper bearish confirmation still needs to be established. That would require a breakout below the orange horizontal support, which has served as a key reaction zone in recent sessions. Even more critical is the blue mid-term uptrend line. A decisive daily close below both of these supports would activate a strong sell signal, and validate the double top scenario.
Until then, the sentiment turns cautious—leaning bearish—but not yet confirmed.