With the US–Iran ceasefire having officially ended, where else to look except crude oil? Throughout this crisis, the asset has been where the war’s effects are reflected most cleanly, and that continues to be the case.
A couple of weeks prior, as the ceasefire had just been signed and lasting peace seemed to have been achieved, we outlined the following path in an article similar to this one:
Crude Oil on the Daily Timeframe
Technical analysis shows us how market participants are behaving, and by extension what other market participants think the asset will do. However, what it can never predict is future news. We must also keep in mind that any secondary resolution would then also invalidate our updated outlook again, meaning everything is dependent on how much the conflict itself escalates.
Crude Oil on the Daily Timeframe
With the current situation, however, something along the following lines can be expected. Due to the resumption of the conflict, leg D likely moves higher than originally thought, and only fails at the underside of the March–June range at around $88. By extension, the eventual move to $62 is also moved back to a later date, perhaps in mid-to-late August.