USD/CHF at the Edge: Long-Term Range Faces Breakdown Risk
24 December 2025
In today’s technical analysis, let’s take a long-term look at American dollar to Swiss franc on the daily chart, where a very important situation is unfolding. Since June, this pair has been trading inside a wide rectangle pattern, moving sideways without a clear long-term trend. At the beginning of November, price tested the upper boundary of this range and failed, and now we are back at the lower boundary, which has acted as a key support multiple times over the past months.
This support zone is absolutely crucial. It was tested and defended in September, October, and November, making it one of the most important technical levels on the chart. What is worrying for buyers is that even better-than-expected U.S. GDP data failed to support the dollar, and price continues to push lower. The current reaction suggests that buyers are not defending this level with enough conviction, which significantly increases the risk of a downside breakout.
From a trading perspective, the scenarios are clear. A daily and weekly close below this support, especially if it happens during the Christmas week, would be a strong long-term signal to sell, confirming a breakout from the rectangle to the downside. On the other hand, any clear demand reaction and bullish reversal from this area would once again validate the range and offer a signal to go long, targeting the upper boundary of the rectangle. This makes USD/CHF one of the most important pairs to watch right now.