How to use safe haven currencies in FX trading
Safe haven currencies usually react strongly to risk sentiment. When markets are in panic mode, pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CHF tend to fall. What traders do during this time is to exploit these scenarios by:
- Buying JPY or CHF against currencies like AUD (Australian dollar), NZD (New Zealand dollar), and emerging market currencies when global risks rise.
- They monitor the correlations with equities (S&P 500) or bonds. As stocks fall, safe-haven assets tend to rise and gain value.
- Some traders even go as far as to trade around key events like central bank decisions, wars, and recessions. However, it is very risky as volatile markets can easily move past your stop-loss, making tight risk control and position sizing critical to survive.
Another prominent approach is to reduce exposure to riskier assets by closing open positions in emerging market currency pairs and investing money in safe-haven currencies instead. This trading method of trading around important news events is often called news trading, and it can only be implemented profitably after comprehensive backtesting and demo trading, and is not recommended for beginners.
Trade safe haven currencies - Practical techniques and pro tips
There are many techniques to trade safe haven currencies during crises, and the main requirements are to time your entries precisely, which can only be possible by understanding the market sentiment through thorough fundamental and technical analysis.
Technical + fundamental - Combining both for precision
While fundamentals offer the main guidance for major trends during major risks, technical levels still matter. After analyzing fundamentals and finding out if the markets might go into panic or rally, watching key support and resistance zones on charts is necessary to better time your entries. Pairing support and resistance level analysis with major fundamental data such as central bank announcements, economic data, and geopolitical headlines gives much more accurate predictions than solely relying on fundamentals or technicals alone. Among the central bank announcements, traders and investors need to follow the Fed (Federal Reserve of the USA), BOJ (Bank of Japan), and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) news and important information updates. From macroeconomic data, Non-farm payrolls, other employment rate releases, CPI, GDP, and others are crucial. Geopolitical events like wars, sanctions, global financial crises, elections, and others are crucial for volatility.
Entry and exit strategies
Seasoned traders never try to guess what markets will do. They anticipate it and wait for confirmation signals, like from VIX volatility index spikes, sharp S&P 500 sell-offs, and bond yields falling to confirm something major is going on to initialize their positions. Once the move is confirmed, safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF usually strengthen, making pairs like USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, and EUR/CHF attractive for many trading opportunities.
News trading safe haven pairs
To safely trade safe haven currencies, it is essential to properly time entries and use proper position sizing. This is to avoid overexposure to volatile markets. Even safe-haven currencies become volatile when major events occur, and many investors try to readjust their portfolios in an effort to reduce risks and protect their capital using safe-haven assets.
Safe Haven Currencies Importance - Famous examples
We can not discuss safe haven currencies importance without mentioning famous examples where safe haven currencies proved their value in actual market environments.
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
Japanese yen surged as carry trades were unloaded. USD/JPY fell from above 120 to near 87 within months, and whoever got lucky to be on the short side of the pair got huge profits while almost the whole world went into chaos.
Brexit Referendum (2016)
When the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in 201, GBP crashed almost immediately and CHF strengthened because investors were trying to redirect their capital from GBP to safe have CHF, which pushed EUR/CHF much lower.
COVID-19 Pandemic (March 2020)
AUD/JPY collapsed because of global panic. The panic caused major crashes and made safe havens move to hundreds of pips, which would be a lifetime opportunity to sell the pair early and capture a home run move.
Russian aggression against Ukraine(2022)
In February 2022, CHF and USD strengthened sharply because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. EUR and emerging market currencies fell quickly while safe havens gained strength. Since Europe was heavily vulnerable to Russian energy commodities, its currency felt the pressure right away.
Safe currencies Forex hedging strategies simplified
Hedging is one of the most powerful strategies employed by seasoned professionals to mitigate risks when markets briefly move against their portfolios. Hedging with safe-haven currencies greatly aids in offsetting losses in riskier positions. The core idea is very simple: when riskier assets like emerging market currencies or stocks tank the hit, you take an opposite position in safe-haven currency to reduce losses by generating profits from the opposite trade.
safe haven currency hedging in practice
Emerging or EM currencies like the Peso are usually more unstable than safe haven currencies, which are advanced economies. If you are holding an investment in the Mexican Peso (MXN) and the global markets panic, MXN can often fall sharply. To counter this and protect your capital, you can buy USD/MXN (betting on USD rising vs MXN). If the Peso drops further, you generate gains and can mitigate the losses from the primary investment.
If most of your assets are in euros and you fear it could weaken because of the EU recession, you could buy the CHF as it tends to stay strong in crises. So, if the euro falls, CHF positions will make the impact much softer.
Another method, which is also an advanced technique, is to use a cross-hedging tactic with futures or options. When a company expects payments in Japanese yen, it can use currency futures to lock in today’s exchange rates for a future date. If JPY becomes stronger, profits won’t shrink when converted back to their home currency.
Safe haven currency hedging for portfolio risk management
Hedging is used in many different asset classes apart from FX markets, because it is based on a universal mathematical formula that works everywhere. Safe-haven currencies can be used to protect stock or commodity portfolios. Stock traders counter rising equity risks by holding CHF or JPY positions as a counterbalance. Another instance of successful safe currencies Forex hedging tactics is when global funds use USd-denominated assets to keep exposure low when Forex markets fluctuate too much.
Retail traders can also use small positions in safe-haven pairs to maintain insurance against major news shocks in the markets.
Risks of trading safe haven currencies
Depending on the market conditions, safe-haven currency trading can be risky. When markets become very volatile, they can move several hundred pips in mere minutes and hours, and it becomes very difficult to react in time. Another challenge here is that fast-moving markets tend to swing in both directions wildly, which can easily hit your stop-loss. As a result, reducing position size and widening stop-loss is the only way to stay in open positions and generate profits during crisis markets.
Not all crises trigger demand for safe-haven currencies, and some markets just stabilize without any outflow to safe havens, which makes it difficult to generate profits from safe-haven currencies.
The only way to ensure your portfolio stays strong is to exercise strict risk management techniques like using stop-loss orders and avoiding risking too much on any single trade.
Will safe-haven currencies still be reliable in the future?
The future of safe haven currencies will evolve. Cryptos like BTC are often seen as digital safe haven assets. Many modern investors are trying to invest some portion of their portfolio in BTC during crises. However, since cryptos are super volatile, it is still early to consider cryptos as safe havens.
Geopolitical rearrangements like rising US debt levels and global multipolarity can shift which currencies are considered safe, but USD, CHF, and JPY are likely to remain critical risk management tools for years to come.