EURUSD defends 1.18 ahead of ECB decision

09/09/2021

The EURUSD pair managed to defend its 50-day moving average at 1.18, and bulls are trying to buy the dip, sending the euro 30 pips higher ahead of today's ECB monetary policy decision.

Expectations are running high that the central bank will announce a timeline to slow down bond purchases and try to reassure markets that interest rate increases are still some way off.

Since the ECB could not raise rates between 2016-2019, when the economy was doing much better, we think that the central bank won't raise rates in many many years, if ever. 

Additionally, US jobless claims will be released and are expected to improve again. Initial jobless claims should decline to 335,000 (from 355,000 previously), while continuing claims are forecast to drop to 2.744 million, from 2.748 million in the last week.

Elsewhere, the 10-year US yield has erased all of its weekly gains, and it looks ready to decline back below the 1.3% threshold, possibly undermining the greenback broadly.

German DAX is down three days in a row, losing nearly 500 EUR from its Monday's highs as sentiment worsened, mostly due to "hawkish" ECB expectations. US equities are also under pressure, dropping from their all-time highs. 
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