How to spot supply and demand zones in Forex
When identifying supply and demand Forex is the most suitable market as it is open 24/5 and enables beginners to quickly learn this crucial trading concept. To spot those areas traders need to understand what these areas are and how they are created. First of all, supply and demand zones are areas and not lines. This is critical, price tends to touch these zones and decide what to do afterward and it often creates wide areas.
Key characteristics
Supply and demand zones are areas on the chart where bulls and bears clash, leaving clear traces on the chart. Traders look for three critical markets to spot demand and supply zones:
- Sharp price movements (“Runs”)
These are explosive, near-vertical price spikes or plunges which are often 50-100 pips in size. They typically signal institutional activity where orders are filled aggressively. For example, a rapid fall of a EUR/USD pair indicates that a massive amount of sell orders have been executed, paving the way for a high-probability zone establishment.
- Consolidation bases (“Bases”)
After the sharp move, the price stalls in a horizontal range for around 2-30 candles. This zone represents the institutional accumulation (demand) or distribution (supply) zone. The rule here is the wider the base the stronger the zone.
- Volume Spikes
The volume also should agree during consolidation to confirm institutional participation. A demand zone with rising volume is typically a sign of accumulation (demand). If the volume is declining then it indicates distribution (supply).
Supply and demand Forex patterns
Popular supply and demand FX strategy revolves around two patterns, Rally-Base-Rally (RBR), and Drop-Base-Drop (DBD).
Rally-Base-Rally (RBR)
This is a bullish setup: A sharp spike followed by a consolidation base and finally continuation rally. The base is your demand zone.
Drop-Base-Drop (DBD)
conversely, a bearish setup looks like this: a sharp drop followed by a consolidation base then followed by a continuation drop.
Real-world scenario:
Let’s take a DBD pattern in the GBP/USD theoretical scenario: price drops from 1.28 to 1.2700, and the base is around 1.2700-1.2725 with a 3-day consolidation. The continuation drop occurs to 1.2650 which confirms a supply zone at the base.
Tools for supply demand forex analysis
While you can use naked charts for price action analysis to spot supply and demand areas, trading tools and indicators offer a good validation for these setups. Here are some of the most useful tools and indicators:
- Fibonacci retracement - Technical traders often use Fibonacci levels as a confirmation for their supply and demand trading techniques. When the zone aligns with key Fibonacci levels, it is a higher probability setup.
- Volume indicators - Volume indicators are a must when trading with supply and demand zones. Traders often use volume profiles to spot high-volume nodes (HVN) to check if they overlap with zones.
- Candlestick patterns - Candlestick charts are powerful for spotting pin bars, and engulfing patterns, and when they align with supply and demand zones signals have higher chances of success.
Beginners might still struggle with defining supply and demand zones and to make it easier we will discuss a step-by-step process for drawing these areas.
Step-by-step guide to drawing zones
In financial trading, it is important to always rely on objective and scientific methods instead of gut feelings. Here is an institutional-grade process to spot supply and demand zones with high accuracy.
Step 1. Spot initial run
The first step is to identify a sharp movement of price which should be at least twice the size of the average candle range. This is your main zone formation. It is important to use indicators like the Average True Range to measure the average movement and compare it with initial run candles.
Step 2. Find the Base
Draw horizontal lines at the high and low of the consolidation phase after the initial run. These lines are similar to support and resistance lines and you can use trend lines on MT4 and MT5.
- Demand zone - Base after a rally
- Supply zone - Base after a drop
Step 3. Define zone boundaries
The demand zone has upper and lower boundaries. The upper boundary is at the start of the initial rally and the lower boundary is at the low of the consolidation base.
The supply zone's upper boundary is at the height of the consolidation base and the lower boundary is at the start of the initial drop.
Step 4. Validate
To make your analysis highly accurate try to always use “fresh” zones, which are zones that were untested previously or tested just once. Institutional traders love to place orders at round numbers and you should also follow them by adjusting boundaries to nearest round numbers like 1.0700 where orders tend to cluster. There are many indicators available free to deploy and define zones automatically.
Simulated case study for AUD/USD forex demand zone:
- Engine - Price rallies from 0.6480 → 0.6580 for 100 pips straight
- Base - 3-day consolidation at 0.6520–0.6540
- Zone - 0.6520 (lower) to 0.6580 (upper)
- Trigger - Bullish engulfing candle at 0.6525 → Rally to 0.6620
With this theoretical scenario, it is easier to understand how the whole thing works and how well-established rules can protect traders from subjective trading which is important with complex concepts such as supply and demand zones trading.